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BPS 287: Screenwriting for Netflix’s Algorithm with Stephen Follows

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Alex Ferrari 2:18
I like to welcome back to the show returning champion Steven Follows. How are you doing Steven?

Stephen Follows 4:25
I'm doing very well. You say that every time and I'm starting to believe you.

Alex Ferrari 4:28
Well, that's what I'm trying to do. Little by little I'm building I'm building you up, sir. I'm building you up.

Stephen Follows 4:34
I'm delighted to be back and your audience are always awesome as well. Every time I'm on the podcast, people reach out to me and say, Hey, I heard you. I'm part of the tribe. I heard your analysis podcast. Hey, I've got every single one so far has been like really polite, but also with a really interesting question or perspective. And yeah, you've got a great tribe. So I'm always happy to come back.

Alex Ferrari 4:53
Thank you, man. I appreciate that. And last time, we were on the show. We we Did that diehard episode, which was fairly controversial, sir?

Stephen Follows 5:04
Oh, was it? Did you get pushback?

Alex Ferrari 5:08
No. Well, a couple people couple people I got a couple of tribe members like really Alex an entire episode about diehard and I'm like, Yes, it is. But you know funny enough is that when I am when I talk to people now about diehard because now I'm you know i'm i'm an evangelist I go you know, you know Diehard's a Christmas movie and they'll push back up but no, no, no, no, no, I have data. I have proof that Diehard it so I appreciate you doing the hard work on that. And so now at parties, or at least zoom meetings nowadays. I get to, I get to say no, no, I have to get data. Here's the link and I send them to our interview and people just like amazing and I just

Stephen Follows 6:00
that's always the thing you want to hear at a party when you're having a conversation with someone when they go No, no, I have the data.

Alex Ferrari 6:05
Exactly. It's just your life of the party. You are the life of the party without without question, and then I just released a list of the Top 12 screenplays of unconventional Christmas movies and of course Diehards on the top of that list but I had to leave them weapon on there. What else did we have on there? Lethal weapon? Gremlins, Gremlins two

Stephen Follows 6:29
good night.

Alex Ferrari 6:30
Which one?

Stephen Follows 6:31
Is it? What's the one with 497 with

Alex Ferrari 6:34
oh oh no luck is good night. Yes long kiss goodnight. Long kiss goodnight is on there as well. A bunch of a bunch of Shane Black a bunch of Shane a bunch of Shane Black episode whatchu ma call it screenplays because he's he just loves absolutely loves writing. I mean I could argue Iron Man three but I prefer not.

Stephen Follows 6:57
You know Disney do to do list that and on Disney plus under Christmas movies?

Alex Ferrari 7:01
Oh, yeah.

Stephen Follows 7:03
I genuinely don't know if they're doing it to try and stir up controversy or they genuinely believe it.

Alex Ferrari 7:09
And before we start on our current interview, I have to I'm gonna list off the list of Christmas. Christmas. unconventional Christmas movies. Diehard, Lethal Weapon, Kiss Kiss Bang Bang. Gremlins Gremlins to Batman Returns.

Stephen Follows 7:25
Oh yeah,

Alex Ferrari 7:26
Eyes Wide Shut.

Stephen Follows 7:30
You really went there?

Alex Ferrari 7:31
I went there. So yes. Edward Scissorhands.

Stephen Follows 7:34
Mm.

Alex Ferrari 7:35
Long kiss Good night. Bad Santa. Black Christmas. And Krampus. Yes, yes.

Stephen Follows 7:44
That is quite a list.

Alex Ferrari 7:45
That is that that was it took me a minute to put it together. But I had to. I had to I had to. I had to, I had to give them love. So Stephen, man, I mean, I'm always so impressed with everything you do. I love you just an insane, insane human being in the way and the same way you call me insane for what I do. I it's a mutual admiration because I can never do what you did. In 20 lifetimes. I don't think I'll be able to ever do what you do. But I was. I was I don't know where I saw it. Because you kept you kept it to yourself. I have to I have to keep this after I have to give you props for this. You told me that you were working on something big. And I'm like, What is it? He's like, I can't man I gotta keep it. I gotta keep it quiet. I'm like, Alright, fine. I do the same thing. That's fine. And then I think I saw a pop up somewhere, like a few weeks later. And this thing called VOD clickstream showed up on like, what and I clicked on on like, what is this? And I? And I didn't, honestly, I didn't connect that it was yours for a second to like, because I literally had no idea what this was. And then I went to the about the team. And I'm like, oh, some of this is this is Stevenson. I emailed you right away. I'm like, What is this? What's going on? So can you tell you TF but yeah, so I did actually, I think it's like What the f? So can you tell the audience what VOD clickstream is?

Stephen Follows 9:16
Yeah. Definitely, I'll give you the simple pitch. And then I'll make it more complicated and nuanced, because it's got some weird sort of qualities to it. But the simple pitch is that I've got access to a huge data set, which reveals what people have been watching on Netflix, over a three and a half year period. So this is Yeah, I know. It's something I've been chasing for a while and we can talk, you know, in a minute about the history of the whole thing, but it's been something I've been chasing for a while. And it's it feels it's like almost more of a mission for me than than just a stats project. Because I don't like that. We don't know what's going on on this.

Alex Ferrari 9:54
And I think it matters,

Unknown Speaker 9:55
I think and I think it matters, you know for your audience and my audience was very similar, like studios must have a better idea than the average filmmaker. And we don't have the kind of openness and transparency that we have from theatrical or in other areas. And crucially, everyone's experience of s5 is so different. My wife and I share a Netflix account, but we have our own profiles. But there's so different. And we accidentally log on with hers. And we go, omg it's all pink, white, Sandra Bullock and everything. Like, why is everything so sad and exploding. And what that means is that even to people who, like live together, still can't get a sense from their own experience. Whereas when you go to the theater, and you see if it's full, you see lions, you know, you hear about it, and we have the same shared experience. So because of that, because of the essar is so highly personalized. You can't get any clues how things are doing. And they started to release a little bit more data in the last few, like months and stuff. But compared to what we're used to getting on the box, isn't even that's not enough, like how filmmakers supposed to know what to do what people want to watch, like, what is this new realm that is dominating, so much of the value chain is only going to dominate more of it? And obviously, COVID? And I just don't know how else we're supposed to know do this. So this is an answer to that. I guess it's not perfect, but it's, it's pretty unusual. And I think really powerful. And we've only just begun really, this isn't a project where I've launched a finished thing. Here's a report, go read it. It's like, okay, the work begins there.

Alex Ferrari 11:25
So this is essentially the Holy Grail. This is this, this is Eldorado for you, as far as data is, as far as data is concerned. No. Neither is the holy grail Eldorado. Neither is the holy grail or El Dorado for that matter.

Stephen Follows 11:41
I get the Wi Fi is terrible.

Alex Ferrari 11:43
It's horrible. It really is. I've been there. It's not it's not pleasant.

Stephen Follows 11:46
Is that why you left?

Alex Ferrari 11:48
Yeah I just left. I mean, I grabbed a couple things along the way.

Stephen Follows 11:50
But. But yeah, so it's like, it's been really exciting. And the volume of data and the complexity of the data is, it's an order of magnitude, much bigger than I'm used to dealing with. So it's not just me, I've had some help from some amazing data scientists, and most of them, I mean, two of them have PhDs in theoretical physics, you know, they, they deal with things like dark matter, and, and whether the standard model of the universe as we understand it is correct or not. And then I start talking to them about like, what we know about Netflix, and wow, we know more about dark matter. We know more about the origins of the universe that we know about what a film performed on Netflix. And I was like, aha, do you want to like, join the team? Let's figure something out.

Alex Ferrari 12:38
You're Indian. You're Indiana Jones, and you put it together a team?

Stephen Follows 12:44
Almost all physicists like we're the team is more I think it has more theoretical physicists than people who are not a theoretical physicists. And by the way, I'm one of them not. And so it's been kind of bonkers, because not only are they very talented data scientists, but also they're used to dealing with abstract ideas and abstract numbers. And actually, you need to deal with that. I mean, we'll talk about this later on, I'm sure some of the ideas in how you analyze this get quite abstracted quite quickly. Because it's not as simple as like, you know, box office, you say, How much money did it make? Even that's a bit flat, because you don't know if it was lots of kids or a few adults or peak time or off the web. But generally, it's comparative, you account for inflation, you can sort of sort out with this data, it's so much more complicated than that to try and get straightforward, simple answers. And so that's why they were so they just had all the right training for it. And it was just a joy to work with those just incredibly smart, talented people. And sort of see what we can do something interesting for the film, community.

Alex Ferrari 13:44
I have a I have a theory, see, but I feel that the reason why people take you seriously, it's not only because of your work ethic and your talent, but I truly believe it's your it's your it's your accent, because everything you say, I mean, you I mean, it's, it sounds so legit. Like if you if you would like Listen, my friend, I have some land to sell you some swamp land to sell you in Florida, I'd be continue.

Stephen Follows 14:09
But you know, you have a voice for excitement. Let me tell you something exciting. I'll be like.

Alex Ferrari 14:15
So if we joined forces, Steven, we could roll the war

Stephen Follows 14:18
Or we could ruin each other.

Alex Ferrari 14:20
This is very true. Very true, sir. Very, very true. Okay, so how, okay, so you're essentially going inside? The algorithm of Netflix is exactly like that.

Stephen Follows 14:33
Not quite that. So this, it doesn't come from Netflix themselves. There's no data breach. We haven't scraped there. We haven't taken it from them in any sense. What's happened is it utilizes this sort of type of data called clickstream data. And what clickstream data is, is that people have volunteered they've signed up have opted in to install plugins and services and things like that in their browser and other things like that. The the these, let's say plugins are really useful, you know, they've maybe they're a really good translator tool or they just do a certain thing really well. And they're free for users. And the deal is that in return for that, they the users agree that their anonymized history, they clickstream, all the clicks they made essentially, can be sent to a server and put into a big bucket. And that sort of firehose of millions and millions of people are there. anonymized history allows us to see what the journey they made around the web. And so the actual raw clickstream, which I don't have, which is the full, like epic amounts of data, you can imagine millions of people clicking constantly around the world, that is so valuable to so many people in so many different ways, you know, you could get a sense of how popular something is, before the the quarterly reports come out, you could see how people are buying things on Amazon, all that, what I wanted with a tiny slice of it, and I just wanted, I actually wanted all the streamers. But Netflix was, for various reasons, the best one to go for. And I've been chasing these guys for a while. And I was like, because I've known about this for a few years, and I've said, Look, just give me access to the Netflix slice netflix.com because it can be really instructive and very useful for filmmakers. And because of the nature of the clickstream industry, it's a small industry that makes highly expensive content data. And so they were quoting massive figures, like five figures a month, a massive high end, and it was just impossible. And then so I've been talking to them every six months or so I catch up and go, hey, you've you've suddenly sort of decided that your data is worth far less than it was. And they'd like no. And, and then around the summer 2019, there was a sort of big shift in the clickstream data world where there was a there was a sort of a perfect storm of a few different things. Like some of the browser browser, the big browsers changed some of their rules about what their plugins and extensions could do and what data they could share. Generally, people were getting tighter and privacy and so things that they were happy to share in the past, they were less happy to share now. And just all these sort of things came together. And so the clickstream industry transformed and sort of what a lot of their business models, they had imploded and some of the companies are still around doing other things. But basically, it kind of that version of it kind of ended in the summer of 2019. And so towards the end of last year and the beginning of this year. So beginning of 2020, I went back to them and said, Look, you've got this now static data set, and I can't offer you money. I can't there's no, I don't know if the values in that. And I can't do much with it. But I I know that it's fascinating and for filmmakers, and could be very instructive. Please, can you basically give me the the Netflix data, so I worked out a deal with them, which didn't, which was possible to do. And then, so then they gave me about two thirds of a billion data points. So first of all, it was it's just the volume is like, it's just and you know, they get a give me a sample, you can only have a million rows in Excel, before it crashes. And before it didn't work load any more rows. And they gave me a sample of the data. And it was like day one, hour one. And Excel was like it wasn't ours day one. And but an Excel went can't look at anymore. And so that volume is amazing, because it's really granular. And so what I ended up with was, these are anonymize users. So each user has a randomly generated ID, which resets over a certain period. And I know what country they're in. And I know what URL they clicked on exactly the time and the day. And that's pretty much it, there's a bit of metadata. And that's pretty much it. And so, in of itself, a click isn't doesn't mean anything. But when you add them together, you can infer meaning. So you could say, this person clicked on the Netflix link, that is the watch page for a bit of content and the content 22 minutes long, they waited 20 minutes, and then they clicked on the next one, well, that you can reasonably assume that they viewed it right. And you also can see what people have searched for and things like that. So so we have all this data, it has sort of three big limitations. The first is historical. So our data starts in the beginning of 2016 and ends in the summer of 2019. So it's like three and a half years. It's a shame, it's not live, but everyone asks me, can it be live? And the answer is always, sadly not. But if it were live, I wouldn't be able to get access to it. So it's kind of it's this or nothing. And secondly, it's only desktop and laptop users, which netflix they are about 25% of their audience. And so we didn't know if that would have a skew or not like whether people watch fundamentally different content on their desktop and laptop than they do on other TV or tablets, whatever. So the first thing we did was that we went about recreating the stats that Netflix had announced during that period. So when they said birdbox got X number of views or was the number one film within the first Two weeks or whatever, whatever it was, like any data point that they said in a press release, we would go back to our data and try and recreate it. You know, we've performed the same analysis and time and time again, we were getting the same answers they were getting. So because of that analysis, I'm, I'm very, very confident that the big picture we have is a very, very good model of what they have. They've always been cases where it's slightly different or whatever. But fundamentally, considering we started with nothing, I think we were very happy with that.

Alex Ferrari 20:30
So then you don't know how many people actually watch Cobra Kai or Tiger case? No, exactly.

Stephen Follows 20:35
That's what's so interesting is, so what we have is we do have a number for how many people within these panel abusers watched it. But we don't know exactly how that scales up. So what we've had to do is, if we had every single click on netflix.com, then you'd have your viewing figures, right, you'd have a wrong number. But because we we have a fluctuating panel. And and we've had to account for like different factors, like First of all, over the course of these three and a half years, the size of Netflix's subscriber base has changed. It's basically grown and sponsored in different countries, that the number of people using these plugins and services has changed, gone up and down, and maybe they break into a new country or a tool gets taken off. And so that's changed. And, and then also how you compare a piece of content that, let's say, was only available for one year in 2016. How do you compare the performance of that film with another film that was out in 2019? or something? Or 2018? or whatever? How do you compare them because they weren't available at the same time. And so what we have to do is basically, normalize all of these views per day, per country per type. What that basically means is for every single country, we've said, on this particular day, he was the most watched film, and then comparing all the other films to that film. So like film number two, the second most popular film got 70% of the views, the first one did and the third one got 60% or whatever. And then that then gives us comparable things, because you can say within all the films that are available, how did each of them perform. And then that allows us to then create scores overall, over these three and a half year period. So this is where the scientists were really useful because they, you know, compare this content across time and space and different panel sizes the d

Alex Ferrari 22:18
And the dark matter and the ends of the universe. And so I got I got I got it. Okay, so alright, so

Stephen Follows 22:25
last lesson, the last limitation is that we don't have demographic information. We don't have IP addresses. We don't know age, gender, like we know what country they're in. But that's it. So okay, invitation.

Alex Ferrari 22:34
All right. So all right, so let's, um, let's, let's ask some some tough questions and see what you can do to help us because the reason why filmmakers are listening is like, we find this very fascinating how you're getting this data. But how does this help me? So, does Netflix have a longtail? Is that something that that you were able to come up against?

Stephen Follows 22:55
Yeah. That's exactly something we're able to have a look at. So, the longtail idea was was made sort of most famous by an article in wired in 2004. And it was this prediction based on the idea of growing digital platforms like Amazon, selling books and DVDs at the time. But the idea being that, previously, when you have a physical shop, you make most of your money from the top titles, top 10, top 100, whatever the ones you can have in the front of the store, right. And that's where you make your money. The concept of the long tail is that the way that Amazon, the future will make their money is actually through all of the other inventory, the other 100,000 titles, some of which they only sell one or two, every, every every year or whatever, but there's enough of them on total. And so it becomes about the misses, not the hits. And so this was an idea that was put out there and some people supported some people don't. and how it relates to us is that we already know that the box office doesn't really have a long tail, we know that three quarters of all of the money made in the box office goes to the top 50 Films each year. Like it's heavily heavily skewed towards these top movies. So the other however many, you know, seven 800 movies released that year are competing for the final quarter. And that is not great. Because it makes it very hard for us to to to compete because we if you're not big, you're nothing, right. So one of the first things we wanted to test was okay, well, we know that the movie industry is already top heavy already. Massive disproportionately supports the big films. But if we took on this long tail idea, maybe Netflix would be a place where lots of smaller movies would do well, everyone which is something different, but it doesn't matter overall because Netflix are happy. And maybe that's our Savior, you know, maybe it's a fairer space for us all to compete in and loads of tiny movies can equally survive. So that was a big thing for me to look at. And I gotta say it's disappointing, but not surprising news. So basically, net though the viewing patterns on Netflix are slightly more skewed towards big films than the box office. Which means that most people on Netflix are watching a small amount of massive bits of content, which was mostly in the US. It was mostly Disney films, like Disney, they had to deal with net.

Alex Ferrari 22:55
Yeah

Stephen Follows 22:57
Just now finished. But that accounted for a huge proportion of Netflix's views. And it really was a problem for Netflix when Disney ended that deal. I don't know the ins and outs of the the deals. But what I can tell you is that they lost their best performing content in a number of different grounds.

Alex Ferrari 25:43
Yeah in the office in the office as well got lost because it went over to isn't it on HBO, Max or somewhere else that it got?

Stephen Follows 25:50
So, yeah. Well, presumably, peacock? Because it's right. Right. Right. Yeah. And And so yeah, the office is, the office is a great example. Because the office allows us, we've got all the stats on the episodes of The Office. And because the off all episodes of The Office were available across our entire time period, it's actually really easy for us to compare the performance of different episodes, we actually don't have to worry about accounting for time and availability and stuff. And so we've actually used that as a good example to look at how might the nature of S-VOD viewing change the way we think about filmed content. What I mean is, right, so in TV, we're used to having seasons, you know, because of the way that they're funded and broadcast and just the way that it's evolved, we are used to having a piece of content. So having having a series that is got a beginning, middle and end, maybe it's got an arc across the season, and the beginning of the end of the season is significant. And then we wait and whatever. But that doesn't, there isn't time is less of a factor with things like Netflix, like, it's not irrelevant, but it's far less of it doesn't matter whether it's summer or winter, you just watch them, Benjamin. So when we looked at all the viewing figures of all the episodes of the office, we noticed a couple of really fascinating things. Which is, first of all, the most popular season was season four, not seasons One, two, which is kind of interesting. And I think it's about that was where it really hits stride and where people start watching it or maybe where they rewatch it as well. But we couldn't see, if you have a look at the chart of viewing figures across, you know, you're on the left hand side, you've got season one, episode one on the right hand one, you've got the last one in season eight or nine, whatever the last one was, and you have all the viewing figures as a line, sort of a line going up and down across across those two points. You can't see where the seasons begin and end. You know, they may make them as seasons, but people don't watch them as seasons. So it's much more like a podcast than a radio series. Right? So you might think a radio series has got a season and certainly in the UK, the BBC have, like, Okay, this will be six or maybe 10 episodes of a radio series, then there'll be a hiatus and then they'll come back. Whereas podcasts you just think are always going to continue right, you just it's a it's a long stream of content. It's like a soap opera rather than a miniseries. And that's how people watch the content. And so I don't know how long it will be. But it seems inevitable. based on the data we have, that when people start making more content for Netflix, they're going to move more and more to this sort of soap world where they're always making them like a churn. Like even the most expensive ones it from the way people watch them, it makes sense to just drop a new episode every two weeks, forever, than it does to quickly go and make 10 of them. I mean, the economics, the production costs might be different, you might want to throw more in one location, but the production costs are not a big concern, if you get a Netflix hit. So maybe we're gonna start seeing seasons of indefinite length, and maybe break breaking down like how long episodes are like, I've just been watching them. There's some brilliant comedians called Auntie Donna, Australian comedians who've got a Netflix series that's just come out, which is incredible. But they some of their episodes are like 17 minutes long. And it's great because every second is great, but they don't have to stretch it to 20 to 30 minutes, whatever it would have to be for TV. So

Alex Ferrari 29:19
you know so so with with all this information are you seeing because I've been reading a lot that Netflix, you know, is infamous for just canceling shows. Some of the people's favorite shows just get cancelled and they're like, you know what, screw you We don't care, because we're gonna get we're gonna put out 20 new shows this month. And, and they generally don't go past three, four seasons. You know, I mean, I think Frank Grace and Frankie is one of the longest running shows on on Netflix. Orange is the new black got cancelled, ended eventually and, and they don't seem to care about letting things go on and on and on and on. Because they just rather just start playing thing from scratch. And I think it's because mostly because of the talent costs and

Stephen Follows 30:04
and that's gonna say I don't, I have no inside track on to to Netflix and I the data doesn't give me all of what I'm saying here. So some of this is filling in the gaps or my opinion. Sure. But I, I would say that the cancellation for most of these things comes down to exactly what you'd expect, which is number one cost. And number two talent, which is related to cost because they are they asking for more money each season and crucially do they want to still want to do. And obviously Netflix are going to cancel shows that they don't think of performing. But they, they could do with more content, almost always. And if you think about it, what they actually really want it, they obviously want content that everybody watches, that's amazing, that'd be great. But one of the other things that's actually really important for their business model is content that's important to some people like really important. So let's say that hypothetically, you and I both have a Netflix account. And let's say that you watch loads of different TV shows every every month, you watch 30 different shows, if I watched just two shows every month, but both of us pay the same fee. Those two shows that I watch are more valuable to Netflix, because if they cancelled those two, or maybe even just one of them, maybe I would leave. But if they canceled 10 of the 30 to you watch now you probably watch the other 20 and maybe some other ones. So the model that they're having to use here is not just not just the number of people watching you, but it's how valuable they are to that particular sort of audience. Yeah, yeah, exactly. So that's what I mean, it's a whole different business model where it's on television, you're saying how many people are watching it? And what demographic are they in? Like that's, that's what's driving content on television. And what's driving content on Netflix is different.

Alex Ferrari 31:54
completely different. In so what I'm have to ask the question, what does the lowly independent filmmaker, how does their stats work? I mean, obviously, you said that they're mostly skewed towards the big movies or big stars. I mean, I saw an interview or an article discussing why Adam Sandler, is one of the biggest stars on Netflix. And that's in like people like Why does he keep making these movies? Why? Why does Netflix keep giving him money? Why I mean, like, I personally a fan of Adam, so I love his stuff. Not everything but most of his stuff. And the thing that they said was in the article was was really interesting. And it made a whole lot of sense was the reason why Adam Sandler is given this these kind of movies and these kind of deals is because when you're scanning through an S VOD platform, there's so much content that when you see something familiar, when you see an Adam Sandler movie, you know what you're going to get? Like there's there's no mystery about like, I think you just run this Halloween, they just released the holly something or other how Halloween Holly Halloween or something like that, which was a huge, huge hit. They're going to do a sequel to it, because so many people watched it. And it's the same. You know, it's the same stuff Adam Sandler has been doing since Billy Madison, and Happy Gilmore. But because of people's comfortability with, they know what they're going to get people watch and watch and watch.

Stephen Follows 33:36
We see a lot of that. I mean, there's a lot of brands that do very well in a brand, Adam Sandler being a brand here that does very well on Netflix, and I think that some of it is down to is absolutely what you're saying. I think with him, there's also not that much competition, you know, there, there aren't many substitutes. What's the Adam Sandler substitute? Well, Kevin James is in most of Adam Sanders films.

Alex Ferrari 33:57
So it says David Spade.

Stephen Follows 34:00
There isn't a lot of competition. And I think that there's something you touched on there, which is incredibly important, which is that the way that people invest in the time they're spending watching stuff on our squad is a lot more about relaxed time and not making a decision and some of that, and I think that speaks to why Adam Sandler is popular, but also why that's the same films people are watching. And they're watching the same TV shows again, and again, rather than watching new ones. And I think that actually doesn't help independent filmmakers, because we're making stuff that doesn't have famous people doesn't have existing brands. And more often than not, is trying to challenge something I'm not suggesting we're all trying to pass on a message or communicating but it's not the same. It's not the kind of Sacher and stuff you might get from Transformers or a Disney movie or Adam Sandler where you're like, Okay, I'm just gonna go with the flow. Most independent filmmakers are making something a bit spiky than that. And I think that doesn't suit most of the way people watch Netflix. And so I think when you your question about what is a story mean that Netflix is what we've learned so far from Netflix, it applies to the other platforms and continues broadly. In the future, I'd say that it's not great for selling independent content. Because first of all, what these platforms like Netflix one is the MCU, they want the Marvel Cinematic Universe, because they people will watch it, they also can do one deal and get loads of it. And that'll get most of their views. They don't do individual deals, the audience aren't watching that content, the other company or the independent content. So there's not much of a drive for that. And so I think that's not great. However, what I would say is, in the same way, right now, I wouldn't invest in any of the companies that own theaters, I would still invest in the concept of theater going, because I think people go on dates, they see their mates, it's a cheap, for it's the most the cheapest, most social form of going out with the lowest effort. And I think that what's happening right now, I mean, I just happened, I was really a few days ago that Netflix have spent 2 billion pounds in the UK alone on content this year on production. So independent filmmakers might have many more routes to being employed than they would have had previously as if their previous routes were big movies or TV shows, they've now have a whole new realm they could compete in I don't know how well I don't know how fair that system is, I don't know. But certainly, there's got to be more and more entry level people, because there's just more concurrent more content being made.

Alex Ferrari 36:26
Oh, yeah, here in Mexico here in New Mexico, they're, they're expanding, Netflix just got approval from the state to expand their studios, they they're building out a massive studio complex. In New Mexico to hire

Stephen Follows 36:39
people, it's going to create, of course, below the line. And so as filmmakers like that, and also there are some interesting things Netflix is, it's very easy to think of them as a studio. And they're actually fundamentally not, they are a technology company. And they bring a lot of different values into what they're doing. I mean, I would argue that they are one of the the most forefront of HR, in the film industry, human resources, like they actually are able, normally when you if you work on, if you're below the line crew member, and you work on six different independent productions in a year, you can expect to have six different relationships, and no concurrent, no sort of handover really beyond a mild relationship in the sense that if something bad happens, you just try your luck again on the next one. Whereas here, because there's a continuity of people being the higher end, you know, Netflix care whether there's a complaint about somebody, and this is great for things like sexual harassment or unfair treatment or discrimination. I'm not saying they're going to solve everything, but there is a continuity there. I mean, some of the studios have tried that Warner have been doing that for a bit and Disney to some degree, but no one to the extent net and Netflix are doing this. So they are doing some things very differently. And as individuals, it might be a good thing, as people buying and selling content the way we used to doing it. I just can't see it being better than it was. Because it's also an oligopoly. You know, I don't I'm not suggesting they're acting in any way, duplicitous. But when you have five or six, possible, maybe even, let's say, three or four, as you know, hold them. So Apple aren't buying existing content. So let's say that it's Amazon and Netflix, let's say that they're the only two that could you could sell your content to in any big way. That's not going to engender, you know, fair prices. And you're doing a single deal in perpetuity for the world. Maybe, maybe. And so that's, that's a simple ad sale. If you get a good price, then that's, that's amazing. But will you get a good price? And I also think there's some worrying practices. I don't think any of them are illegal, but I don't like that as well, I can say. So for example, I was talking to a lawyer recently, who, who's sort of looked over a lot of deals to one of the big streamers. I won't say which one. And this lawyer said, Look, one of the problems is that part of the terms and conditions of the deal between the distributor and the platform, is that the distributor is not allowed to tell the filmmakers how their film is performing. There has to be some sense of aggregation of the numbers and you know, yeah, so it's horrible. That not only is that horrible in a human sense, but it's also terrible for that deal. And it also it stifles long term growth, like how can you have a sustainable career unless you get feedback, and your feedback can't be we did a deal, but I can't tell you anymore. And that brings us full circle back to the VOD clickstream because that's what we're trying to get a little sliver of light in a dark room. Like it's not like we can illuminate everything. But we're trying to understand these things that filmmakers need this feedback loop that needs to happen with the audience.

Alex Ferrari 39:42
Now do you know our American audiences, streaming a lot of international shows because I personally, I've watched a bunch of international shows recently because they've been popping up on my on my, my, my feed, so I'm like, Oh, that looks interesting. Oh, that looks interesting. And sometimes they'll they'll pitch me Something I'm like, Yeah, no, no, thank you. I need, you know. And it just depends like, you know, I'll watch subtitled movies, but not normally, because I want to relax when I'm watching movies, unless I'm watching it for cinematic purposes. But I'm just chilling, I don't want to read. I just want to say you

Stephen Follows 40:20
You don't want to be challenged. Like there are some movies that I would, in a heartbeat recommend to other people that I've only ever seen once and might see again once in the future, but only to introduce it to someone else or because you know, some bizarre circumstances yet there are bad movies that I will acknowledge that a bad thing I've seen the Meg twice,

Alex Ferrari 40:39
right? It's no.

Stephen Follows 40:42
That's the wrong ratio.

Alex Ferrari 40:43
It is it is the right ratio. And you know, what the Meg I, you know, I, I watched the mag as well. And it's just a, it's a popcorn movie. It's, you know, it's there. It's there. That's the reason why just the reason why my wife and I just sat down and watched all four Lethal weapons in a row. Because we watched the first one because I hadn't seen the first one forever. And I'm like, Oh, my God, that's so brilliant. Well, we have to watch two, we have to watch three, well, let's just let's just go, let's make it the fall four. And in four days, we watched for all four of them. And we're like, what's next? Let's watch Tango and cash. You know, like, like, I haven't seen that in 20 years. So it's like I'm going but it actually says exactly what you've been saying is, I'm doing that because I know that I'm comfortable. Those are comfortable viewing habits. And I'm like, oh, let me go revisit that again. Because I haven't seen that in forever. I remember here and there, but I haven't seen it. So

Stephen Follows 41:38
that is a response to being overwhelmed with content. Because you know that there are so many movies been out there. And if you had to create a list, how would you find brilliant movies you hadn't seen? It would take you seconds? IMDb score, meta score, sure one Best Screenplay. And there's loads of movies that you'd be like, wow, that's sure heard. That's amazing. I've not seen it. But that all takes a lot more effort and commitment than most people are willing to give. And this is something that I think filmmakers really independent, because really need to either embrace or realize you're not going to embrace it and then find other routes. Both are valid, like I'm not actually saying make popcorn movies, I'm just saying you can't make challenging movies, and expect them to then survive in a mainstream environment world world, because that's not how people watch that content. Right? It's just fundamentally and I think that the growth of content, or sorry, the evolution of content, and the growth of platforms, are massively interlinked. And the best example I can give you is outside of the film world, but it's kind of makes a lot of sense, which is the rise of Kindle, the Kindle e-reader was a massive part of the success of 50 Shades of Grey, and 50 Shades of Grey was a massive part of success of the Kindle, because you could be on the train reading something, reading basically soft porn, and no one would know. And both of those two things sort of coincide with the same sort of time. And it's not that everyone reading stuff on the Kindle was porn, but it did mean that you could read private things. And the same with the rise of sort of portable devices, and podcasting, you know, these things are interlinked, right. And so what we're seeing, what we're starting to understand with this was, is that people don't watch content in a curated way, the way that they might when they go to a certain type of theater, or they go to like, you know, they could draft house or they or they watch when they buy a blu ray or the Criterion Collection, or, you know, the considered in a centerfire way. That's not what people largely doing on these big platforms. They're sitting down watching stuff that is comfortable. But it's easy to understand that one challenge that they can pause when there's someone at the door, or they want a cup of coffee or something that is out and sat through and through.

Alex Ferrari 43:45
No, there's no, there's no question. I mean, and the other thing is, like you're saying movies that challenge you, you should also you can make movies that challenge you, but you got to do it on a budget. If you you know, if you if you have any hopes of recouping that money, like you can't make a two or $3 million, you know, indie film that five people want to watch. She's just irresponsible.

Stephen Follows 44:05
So there's more, you know, the more it just makes sense, the more you spend, the more you got to recoup. But I and I totally agree with that. I think the other thing that I know you've been screaming at people for since way before Netflix, but it's even more the case now, which is you have to know your distribution route before you make it. I'm not saying do the deal, because I appreciate that it's very hard to walk into a room and say I haven't met you don't know me, you don't know my movie and I haven't made it but can I do appreciate those kind of pre sales can happen. But you can't hope that you're just going to throw it in with the straight with the with the sort of stream of content and including the streamers and it will get swept up and it will rise to the surface. It just from the data I've had I've seen here. That just doesn't happen. That's just not the case. You can't write a book and expect it to be on the front page of Amazon or in the in the front of the book shops, right we know. And yet filmmakers still think if it's good enough, it'll break through and I do worry somewhat that the way the S VOD platforms are working now through no fault of theirs, they're just chasing them, you know, subscribers. And the bottom line is that it isn't. It doesn't reward films The way that the previous system would, to some degree, you know, maybe we'll see fewer breakouts, maybe it will be that the where you really break out is on a much smaller platform like for example, film festivals, whether they're physical or online. Or maybe it's niche sites like shudder or something like that. I don't know, I don't have a site. But that is nowhere near the volume that Netflix does or Netflix competiting appears. So there is, we all know that there's huge amounts up in the air partly it was happening anyway. And then COVID accelerated things. Now, it hasn't landed yet. But we don't yet know what this model will be for independent filmmakers. I am absolutely confident independent film will exist? Because it's not it's never been supply and demand. It's always been supply. Right? Where can I find the demand. And that's been part of the joy of like, movies, they're not been made. Some of the best movies have been made, because they want to be made rather than because they I know, I know, everybody have a deal in place. But things are gonna get tougher until we figure out what they are. But if I have, it's never been easy. And you look at some, you know, the crash of cinema tickets in the 1950s, you look at the crash of DVD, and you look at the uncertainty of aswad. And all this stuff, they will find a way, but just don't know what that is yet. And it's not the one it's not the easy one. It's in front of us. You know. And so you were asking earlier on about TV, because we have we have data for movies for tv and for comedy specials. And for TV. It's it's a, it's the same pattern in a different format. So what we saw in movies is that the most watched movies by a huge degree are the big famous ones. And when it comes to television, what we tend to find is that it is the big shows, but also it's the more familiar shows. So if you go on if you're in the US and you go on Netflix, there's content from many different countries you could choose to watch. But what do people watch? They watch it from their own country, you know, and And

Alex Ferrari 47:14
Generally speaking

Stephen Follows 47:16
yeah, yeah, exactly. And, and certainly, if you look at the, like, the top shows, like the top 50 shows are almost all produced in the US. And you have to even the top 500 most watched shows, not episodes shows, on Netflix over this period, almost three quarters of them were us produced. The UK does very well. But that's largely down to the Great British baking show and things like things. I'm David Adams,

Alex Ferrari 47:42
I would have to say I've seen both. But

Stephen Follows 47:46
what I think is so interesting is that first of all, I was as proud as I create these, these Brits are surviving and competing against that as I owe notes to shows. Like, what this means it's though there's an interesting, like thought process that goes on here, if you're being rational, you would say it would make more sense. Rather than trying to make three films or trying to make one film that competes in three areas. It's quite good, it's quite scary, it's got some effects, it makes more sense based on this data alone to compress all of your resources and that includes time and money and passion and whatever into one thing you know do one thing incredibly well and because of the power law and sub nature that if you go from being the second most the third most popular to the second most popular will mean so much more for you than going from fourth to fifth from from fifth to fourth and that it would argue that it's better to make something that's extremely one thing and you see this I mean we're in we're recording this before Christmas and and in look at how many Hallmark Christmas shows there are

Alex Ferrari 48:53
OMG

Stephen Follows 48:54
good well made or enjoyable I'm gonna show one or two but what they are is feel good Christmas like they are absolutely that

Alex Ferrari 49:02
are there there's a formula and again the comfortability factor for a specific demographic of people. That's why those films generally have a Mario Lopez or, or a Deem Cane or a face that people feel comfortable with because they remember them from you know, they're just comfortable they've watched their films or watched a TV shows over the years. And the watch it because it's like, Oh, you know what, I want to feel good. I want to feel good, Christmassy. And, oh, great. This is a new movie. And there you go. And all of us like I knew that no, that Mario Lopez Christmas movie exploded on Hallmark apparently. Because people love Mario Lopez because you know, it's later but

Stephen Follows 49:46
and he's his this thing is this thought that we I haven't heard expressed very much. I'm sure it's not a brand new thought. But in the last 10 years of being an independent filmmaker and working with independent filmmakers and chatting to them. I've heard people talk about oh my god, we have to hire People actors who've got a bigger social media following or whatever people, people have often complained to, they have to weigh up talent and appropriateness for the role and the wonder, and the fame on the other. What I haven't heard many people talk about, but I would argue is perhaps the battle that we're going for in the next five years, is in familiarity, not fame, but How comfortable are people with that person? So it's like, you know, one of the reasons that George Bush got in over Al Gore was that people were happy to have a drink with George Bush. It wasn't about politics to some for some people. And I noticed because I know, some people that voted for him who actually, I think their politics was slightly strange. And they were like, Yeah, I just don't like the word. I'd have a drink with bush. And so when you think about actors, it's not so much their fame, although obviously that's not a bad thing. And it's not so much their talent, although

Alex Ferrari 50:50
Do you feel comfortable?

Stephen Follows 50:52
Do you think your audience would go Yeah, okay. Without thinking about it. You know, and that's why you look at actors like I mean, almost every one of Adam Sanders movies as a comedy to the point to which people have been watching on uncut gems and been appalled. Whereas there are other actors who you just don't know what their movie is going to be because they play such a wide spectrum of carrier

Alex Ferrari 51:15
Tom. Hey, Tom Hanks is Tom Hanks like you he'll play everything and he's definitely not Adams. Yeah, it's his brand but that's fine and but you also feel comfortable within Tom Hanks or with Meryl Streep. Meryl Streep plays everything. She's going to be in a musical this month on on Netflix. But yet, you know, she she also was on HBO, Max doing another film with Steven Soderbergh. And you know, she she does everything, but that's her brand and you feel comfortable. And

Stephen Follows 51:40
I started this a while ago, I started on my blog, like how broad the act the the roles that actors have played across genres. And I found Adam Sandler was the most siloed. He did, most of his films have been in one genre. And the the actor, I only looked at sort of a couple of 100 really big actors. But the actor I saw that had the broadest as in like, had the least siloed in one genre was Ron Perlman. Yeah. Any you take, there's no one genre that accounts for more than a third of the roles he's done. So he's done some comedy, but he hasn't done mostly comedy. He's done some kids stuff. He's done some horror, easterns fantasy. And so Ron Perlman is an example here, who I think is a terrific actor. Yeah, like a good bloke. He is a perhaps you metric slightly less attractive to hire because he doesn't have that whatever we're going to call it comfortability effect. Whereas someone like Adam Sandler, who I would I'd rather see Ron Perlman take on Ron Perlman take on some certain drama roles at random center. But Adam Sandler would be more comfortable watch for more people. So I don't know what we'll do with answers.

Alex Ferrari 52:43
It's, it's very interesting the way this whole, this whole thing is, but I'm really I'm really happy that you've doing what you've done with the with VOD clickstream. And I'm, I'm just impressed. Like I always am with everything you do, man, you're insane for what you do. And I know that you're going to be digging through that data and continuing to grow, and you just started to go through that. And that's a good it's, it's not exactly what's going on. But man, it's, it's more than we had before. And it's definitely a direction to aim at, it might not be pinpoint. But man, it's better than, you know, like, Hey, I'm gonna go throw a football into a stadium, I have no idea where it's gonna go. Now at least you'll get it on the field. And maybe you can even get it within a few yards. You know, maybe that's the goal.

Stephen Follows 53:33
And also, you know, filmmakers should use all of these data points, and all of these things they hear and then they know themselves and they talk, they hear on your podcast, interviews. All of these are things you need to weigh up yourself and weigh them against everything else. No one person or one system can tell you what to do. And I'm just glad that we have at least one set of signals about SVOD, that doesn't come from the PR department.

Alex Ferrari 53:56
Yeah. Well, and I appreciate you fighting the good fight, sir. And getting this information out to the filmmakers. Where can where can people go and get this info.

Stephen Follows 54:04
So it's VOD clickstream.com. It's entirely free you, if you want to read more than the beginning of the articles, you can just sign up, but it's free. But that's the reason we put that barrier in is that we have got forums that anyone can join. And we wanted to make sure that there was a there was some effort you had to put in and that effort is signing up and accepting your email address. And what that means is that we have forums where people can post suggestions because we're still working out what to do with all of this data. You know, some of it, we have plenty of ideas, and we're churning away at them. But then there's some deeper things that we don't know what to look at. Yeah. And might the best suggestions for the research I've done over the years have come from audiences, I guess, if I was to think of the sort of most exciting things I've studied there, almost all of them come from audience suggestions. So that's what we're looking to have is like, what have you always wanted to know by S-VOD? I can't give you an immediate answer, and I might not be able to answer it at all, but probably I'm the best shot Most people have. And I'd be delighted to follow those threads and suggestions that we've had from people.

Alex Ferrari 55:05
What man, I appreciate everything you do. Steven, thank you so much. We have to we have to come back on the show and talk about our 12 unconventional Christmas movies and do another episode next year. But I appreciate everything you do, brother thanks again for coming on and, and sharing very valuable knowledge with with the tribe. So thanks again.

Stephen Follows 55:27
Thanks for inviting me. It's always a pleasure to be here.

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BPS 242: How to Build a Profitable Horror Film with Stephen Follows

Today on the show we have returning champion Stephen Follows. In this Halloween themed episode, we dive into Stephen’s opus, The Horror Report. The report was created by using data on every horror film ever made, a data-driven dive into everything from development, production, and distribution to recoupment and profitability.

Stephen Follows is an established data researcher in the film industry whose work has been featured in the New York Times, The Times, The Telegraph, The Guardian, The Daily Mail, The Mirror, The Evening Standard, Newsweek, The News Statesman, AV Club, and Indiewire.

He acted as an industry consultant and guest on the BBC Radio 4 series The Business of Film, which was topped the iTunes podcast chart, and has consulted for a wide variety of clients, including the Smithsonian in Washington. He has been commissioned to write reports for key film industry bodies and his most recent study, looking at gender inequity in the UK film industry and was launched on the BBC Radio 4 ‘Today’ program.

Stephen has taught at major film schools, normal business schools, and minor primary schools. His lessons range established topics from Producing at MA and BA level, online video and the business of film producing to more adventurous topics such as measuring the unmeasurable, advanced creative thinking and the psychology of film producing. He has taught at the National Film and Television School (NFTS), Met Film School, NYU, Filmbase, and on behalf of the BFI, the BBC, and the British Council.

Stephen has produced over 100 short films and two features. Past clients range from computer game giants, technology giants, and sporting giants but sadly no actual giants. He’s shot people in love, in the air, on the beach, and on fire (although not at the same time) across over a dozen different countries in locations ranging from the Circle Line to the Arctic Circle.

Enjoy my eye-opening conversation with Stephen Follows.

Right-click here to download the MP3

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Alex Ferrari 1:22
I'd like to welcome back to the show returning champion, Stephen Follows How you doing, brother?

Steven Follows 3:01
I'm good. Thank you. I didn't realize I'd won. So

Alex Ferrari 3:03
You've won

Steven Follows 3:04
I'm the champion.

Alex Ferrari 3:05
You are a returning champion, because you were on the show once before a very popular episode about what was the best? It was like the report on independent filmmaking basically correct.

Steven Follows 3:18
Yeah, that particular one was about we had access to 12,000 unproduced scripts, mostly unproduced scripts, and we were analyzing them for because we also had the scores from readers as well. So what do readers think a good script looks like? And we went through in lots of different different areas of detail.

Alex Ferrari 3:33
It was insane. And like I was saying, before we got on the show is even I mean, I'm such a fan of what you do, because I just can't do it and, and it's just an insane amount of research that you put into these reports. That is, it is awe inspiring, honestly, it really is. So that's why I had to have you back on the show because you know, when I first discovered you I've known about you for a long time but when you jumped on the show we were going to talk about the independent film screenwriting and report but then I when I went back to your site I noticed like wait a minute, what is this and there was a horror report on every horror movie ever made. And I'm like, What is this and when I had you I'm like listen you're coming back on the show cuz we need to talk about this whole report because this is such a valuable information on arguably one of the most popular genres in all of independent filmmaking without question and it's so much good information there's I wanted to dig deep into what you discovered in that horror report but again, thank you for the work you do man because you what you do nobody else on the planet does.

Steven Follows 4:40
Yeah, well that that doesn't necessarily mean it's a good thing. It just means it's a unique thing. Exactly. The fact that you didn't find the report till he went back there for another reason just goes to show how poor I am at Marv. Yes, yeah, I can do the research and put it out there. But that's that's about it. But one thing I did want to say before we kick off properly is just to thank you as well because you're Your community are awesome. I had so many great questions and comments and notes and stuff people sent me they can contact me via my contact page, you go straight on my website go straight to me. And a lot of people said, Hey, I heard you on the podcast. And there was some really intelligent questions. There was some really useful ideas and thoughts and just a lovely group of people. So yeah, keep that up. And thanks so much for having me on.

Alex Ferrari 5:23
Oh, I appreciate that. The tribe is awesome, without question, and that that specific episode, which I will link in the show notes was exploded, people went crazy for it, it really kind of went a little viral. And it was downloaded, I think, easily 10s of 1000s of times. So it was it was done. It reached a lot of a lot of people because people are curious. And it's such a unique angle on what makes an independent film. Good. Well, let's, let's look at the numbers.

Steven Follows 5:54
Yeah, yeah, it's so it's so weird. It's unusual in the sense that I have friends who either successful in other businesses as investors or, or just run other businesses and other walks of life. And every now and then they hear something about the film industry. And they're like, what, how is that possible? How is that sustainable? And I'm like, it's not, but we just keep doing it. And it's kind of like the wily coyote running off the cliff, no one looked down, nobody, an independent film looked down. If one of you does, we're all screwed

Alex Ferrari 6:23
It's you know, and it's very true that and that's one of the reasons why I launched filmtrepreneur is because I wanted to give people some sort of blueprint on actually how to build a sustainable business around it and to think differently about independent films. And I really hope today's episode helps in that way, by looking at the horror genre, as you know, not only as a genre, but as a product, and then how you can kind of position yourself to kind of be in the best place to to actually be profitable.

Steven Follows 6:55
Absolutely. And it's one of those things that a lot of independent filmmakers see horror, as a good way in and for a few reasons, you know, a lot of filmmakers enjoy watching horror films. But also horror films can be made on quite low budgets, and also in the audience are much more willing to go with lower budgets, in fact, arguably, lower budgets can be really beneficial, because horror is about what you don't see. Whereas some of these really expensive genres. It's much more about what you do see, and so you can't do Lord of the Rings in your back garden. But you can do a horror film you can do in your shed, you know,

Alex Ferrari 7:30
Actually, I would love to see Lord of the Rings in the back garden. I mean, I think that anyone listening out there, if you can do that, and in a miniature standpoint, I think it'd be genius.

Steven Follows 7:39
Given where we are with YouTube nowadays, I'm sure it's been done and people are already linking in the show notes.

Alex Ferrari 7:45
Exactly. So for anybody who doesn't know you and your work, sir, can you tell the audience a little bit about you and what you do?

Steven Follows 7:54
Yeah, I'm a film, data stats person. It's not really a job. That's why it's hard to describe.

Alex Ferrari 8:00
You're the only one if you're the only one I love.

Steven Follows 8:03
Yeah. Yeah. So my name is my job title. And no. So I, I actually run a production company in London. And we make we videos and do sort of various bits of marketing stuff for charities in the in London. And that's my day job. And then kind of part time hobby thing that goes out control has been, I've always been really keen on teaching and sharing knowledge and understanding how things work, and sort of slightly a quirk of fate and then keeping going. I have a blog that's been running now for about six years, that looks each week, I look at a different topic within the film industry. And I try and find the data that could reveal what's going on. And sometimes it's data that we all know, but it's a different spin on it. And sometimes, and the most interesting ones are when I'm doing my own primary research, or there's new areas that we haven't thought about. So, for example, I just published an article looking at weather first time directors are a financial risk compared to more experienced directors.

Alex Ferrari 8:57
Yeah, I actually saw that I saw that fly through my feed. So and what's the what's the answer, sir?

Steven Follows 9:04
Yeah, they're slightly more risky, but only not by very much, and certainly not by the amount the industry says. And I think that a lot of what I find, actually reflects that truth, which is, most stereotypes most cliches most urban myths have. Industry myths have some germ or idea or seed of not of truth in them, but they're blown all our proportion and to the detriment of many people. And what that causes is that you end up with disenfranchising all sorts of people in all sorts of ways. So I think what I like is to is to go back and have a look at the data and say, well, Is this true? And so to what extent and if so, why, you know, what is it about that, that makes first time directors more experience, more of a risk or less of a risk and, and where as well because we talk about the film industry, if it's what is if it's one thing, but you can't lump in a small film in a, you know, Hobbs insure type movie, you can't lump in different genres, different audiences, and also different platforms. So there's so many different ways of cutting up what we do. And we call it one industry that you always have to get under the surface. There's no one truth that's going to work for all films in all places.

Alex Ferrari 10:13
Yeah, that's the one thing I find. So I've in my tenure over 20 odd years in the business that I've found, so just irritating. Is that hole, that kind of those the industry myths, like, I remember a time where I was out there pitching a female lead action movie. And all I heard was, oh, they don't make money. They don't make money. They don't make money. And now they're making money. You know, it's like, it's like, ridiculous, or there was no Latino, you know, Latino, or people of color, don't direct it. They just get their movies don't do well, like how ridiculous is that? And yet, the last five out of six best Oscar winners were were Latinos.

Steven Follows 10:57
Yeah. Directors. Yeah, something something could have been true. And absolutely. might be true for good reason. No, it might be true. Just because the enough you measure enough things, you're going to get some bizarre correlations, you know, you flip a coin enough, you're going to get 20 heads in a row. That doesn't mean it's a biased coin. And so for example, pirate movies didn't work. Everyone knew pirate movies failed, until they were the biggest thing ever. And

Alex Ferrari 11:20
Swords and sandals, swords and sandals movies as well.

Steven Follows 11:23
Exactly. It's all cyclical like that. And so yeah, it's one of those things that I'm really interested in trying to understand why these industry, myths and systems are the way they are so that we can all work out what to learn from them, because we can't just follow the facts, because first of all, the facts aren't clear, in all cases. And then second of all, we're in this because we love it. And I often say I often talk about this, because I think anyone who succeeds in film could have a far better career and far easier time and better working hours more certainty, if they weren't in almost any other field. And yeah, we all love this, we're all slightly mad, and that's great. But given that you're being mad doesn't mean you have to be crazy about it. You know, like, if you're gonna go off and make a film and put far too much time and energy into it. That doesn't mean you just do it any way you want, do the smart way. Because you're much more likely to achieve the goals that you set out for yourself and say are important. And I think that's what data can do. He can't tell you what to do. But it can say given that you want to do X, what's the smart way of doing x?

Alex Ferrari 12:24
Right. And again, and that's what I that's what I love about your work is that you're able to look at your you're basically having filmmakers look at the film industry differently, you're out, you're thinking outside the box a little bit, and you're going at it through data like this, like, Look, there's no argument here. This is the data. And this is what the data says, I don't care what anybody else says, I don't care what the myths are. This is what the data says, and this kind of movies doing this money in this how much is done over the last 500 years, or excuse me for a few hours, or so on. And, and, and you're thinking about it differently. And that's what I hope filmstrip runners do is they start thinking about filmmaking, as a completely different beast than what they were taught in school, or what the industry even tells them is the reality.

Steven Follows 13:10
And and also, the thing is two things to say about that as well, which I totally agree. One is that even if someone says to you, this isn't going to make money, or these things don't normally work or it's a bigger risk than something else, doesn't mean you shouldn't do it. You know, what you do with that information is up to you. Like all I'm doing is saying this has been the case and you should follow your heart, you should do what you know is right. And the second thing to say is that if we only did what worked before we'd never have any innovation would never have anything different. And God knows in the creative fields, you can reinvent anything, you know, you can have films that are hugely derivative that are very successful, you can have original films that are very bad. There's nothing to say that because it hasn't happened. It won't happen in the future. The key is to understand why the trends are the way they are, and then feed that into your own machine in your head about what here's what I care about. This is what I know, this is what I can do differently and then make informed choices for yourself.

Alex Ferrari 14:03
Right I mean, horror films that I've been extremely successful like paranormal activity, or Blair Witch, which are the two that everyone uses constantly. As a reference point, I like look all horror movies make this money? No, they don't. But, but on paper, both those films sound horrific. And I don't mean that in a good way. They sound like absolute failures on paper. Like if you would have come to me and told me Hey, I'm going to make a movie about you know, shot really low budge this this or this back then everybody traditional thinking would have said absolutely not, that's never going to work and it's never gonna make any money. You're never gonna see this in the theater. But yet, it's there. They're two of the most successful films of all time in the genre for a reason

Steven Follows 14:49
Totally, totally. And this is a survivorship bias there as well. You know, found footage films, so there's quite a lot of the made because they're so cheap to make. So it's not surprising that one of the most successful films will be found footage film doesn't mean it's not an important part of it, it just means if you have 10,000 of any type of film made, one or two of them are going to be wildly successful. Whereas if you're setting out to make the 10 1000s and first film, do you have a better chance than if you made a different type of film? And maybe this other type of film doesn't have any of these outliers that give you really sexy numbers, but you know, three quarters of the make money? What's, what's your risk profile? What do you want to do? Do you want to shoot for the moon? and buy a lottery ticket? Or do you want to do something consistently and safely? And they're all valid answers? As I said, everything we're doing is stupid. So there's no such thing as like, Oh, you shouldn't have done that. It's like, No, no, no, no, no, we've all run away to join the circus is just you know, what, how we live in that circus. And what we do is totally up to our own passion and interest.

Alex Ferrari 15:48
No, with without great, I love that, like, you know, buy a lottery ticket. I think most independent filmmakers do buy a lottery ticket every time, every single time out there just like, well, this is going to be I'm going to get into Sundance and this is going to make it and boom, boom, boom, and I'm off and running, where you and I both know that that's not the way this business runs. And there is no other business. And I've said this multiple times, there is no other business in the world that I know of that will spend 300,000 $500,000 on a product, and yet, do not have a plan to market and sell that product or recoup its investment. A solid plan is my man.

Steven Follows 16:29
No, you're totally right. And also, each of these films is a prototype, you know, the most derivative film is still somewhat of a prototype, maybe not, maybe maybe the 20th version of something maybe less of a prototype, but fundamentally what business spends all this massive amount of money on prototypes without distribution without marketing plans, distribution plans, and then has to go back to the drawing board. Again, we're almost all businesses, if you look at the opposite, which is drug companies where they spend a fortune to make the first pill, and then they can churn them out for next to nothing and recoup their r&d costs. You know, we have the first half of that and not the second half. Because you have a successful film, especially indie film, well done. What's next? Oh, yeah, I'm gonna rip off all this up, start again.

Alex Ferrari 17:09
Exactly. Now, are you familiar with the blue ocean? Red ocean theory? No, no, no, I'm not. So there's a book called Blue Ocean red ocean. And the concept is in this is for entrepreneurs, but I, as a film intrapreneur, I'm actually applying it to filmmaking. And I think this when you said 10,001, of this kind of genre film, like, let's say, the found footage film, when paranormal activity. And actually, when Blair Witch showed up, they were the first one of the first if not the first, to be in that ocean, that ocean where we would call a blue ocean, which is an ocean that has plenty of fish in it, no competition, because nobody is there. While the red ocean would be, let's say, a slasher film, where there's tons of movies being made or ghost movie, tons of movies in that space are being made. So there's a lot that you know, there's hundreds of those movies bumped out a year. So there's a lot more competition for that audience for that customer. Because they are, you know, that's why there's blood in the water, because it's just like, it's a feeding frenzy. There. So there is a lot of fish, but there's also a lot of competition, and everyone's just killing each other trying to get to that to those customers, where if you go with a blue ocean strategy, you build a product that is going to be a little riskier, possibly. But if you do it more intelligently using data, like we're going to talk about you right, you're you're able to, to, to, to shave off the risk as much. And also, if it hits, you're alone. So that's why like when Paranormal Activity showed up, there was nothing like it before it but also the risk of it was nothing It cost $27,000. So why not try to do something in the blue ocean? Because if it does pop, great. And if it doesn't pop, you still have lost? You know, if you keep keep that overhead low, you're able to still recoup that money faster. Does that make any sense?

Steven Follows 19:04
Yeah, totally. And I think also you have to remember, if you're thinking purely about horror, you need to think about what is it that people want from low budget horror, they want something I've never seen before. And so if you're just iterating on what someone else has done, okay, if you truly made it a little bit better, but fundamentally, if you're just iterating you need to have another edge. You know, you need to have stars, you need to have distribution, you need to have something or maybe the fourth film in a series, okay, fine. But otherwise, if you really want to succeed you need some sort of clever hook that is something that just gets in people's brains and go ha you know, like things like the purge or saw such great simple ideas that can be expressed in a sentence or two, or Blair Witch or paranormal, which is about the the uncomfortable experience of, I don't know what's going to happen. I literally don't know what's going to happen because I have no template for this. Arguably hora is the one that's most open to that. And the least would be sort of family films, anything with children who everybody wants to know what's going to happen. All right, everybody, you need to note that the parent thing to note that the kids aren't gonna be scared at all. So you can't even have tension for very long. Because for kids, that's an age and that's terrifying. So, arguably, in horror, you should be going for the thing that no one else is doing. And you should do it wholly, originally and unusually, because that's likely to insulate you or help you at least in getting to break out from the crowd of horror films.

Alex Ferrari 20:22
Right? And I remember, you know, I always I always tell people to sub niche, you know, the film intrapreneur should sub niche and just niche down. So if you're going to be in horror, that's a niche. Then you go, Okay, what kind of horror movie you're gonna I'm gonna make a slasher film. Okay. Okay, that's, that's a niche. But then there's still a lot of competition in there. So like, why don't you try to make an 80s slasher film? Well, that's a little bit smaller genre, which will open up to a lot of other people, but there's a group of people or of that niche, who want to see ad style horror, and then generate and do a film in that genre. If that's so again, you're just bettering your chances of reaching an audience, especially on a low budget horror movie, and especially if you're going to try to market it and sell it yourself. Does that make sense?

Steven Follows 21:09
Yeah, absolutely. I mean, there's a there's a business concept called category of one, which is this idea that you need to create a new type of thing. So I think the the iconic example everyone gives is light beers, where Miller light created it, you know, you just go it didn't exist, and now it does. And actually, it's better to be number one in a new marketplace than it is to be 20th. Or even say yes, in an existing one. So if you, I mean, that's one of the things that really worked, one of the many things that worked with Shaun of the Dead was the advertise itself as a zom rom com, zombie romantic comedy. And of course, there have been other other films in the past that have used those elements. But it had that unique kind of No, no, honestly, it's all three genres. And it's sold itself very well now. So I'm not saying invented the category, but it's certainly more iconic than its zombie film, or it's a rom com with zombies, you know? So, I think yeah, it's especially important with horror, because I mean, how I got how I got into this, I mean, I don't particularly watch that many horror films. I don't, I don't mind horror films. There's just an eye there are some I really like things like Cabin in the Woods really, really interesting to me. But I'm just in and of itself, being scared or having that tension isn't, isn't my jam. That isn't what I want. But what really got me into it was I was doing research looking at how successful films were based around their critics and audience scores. So what a film critics think of a movie and how likely is it to make money? And what do film audiences as measured? I think, by the IMDb score, the audience score, what does that well, how was the connection between that and profitability, I was using models that actually work out how much money in dollars and cents each movie is likely to have made, which it might be a bit tricky film to film. But overall, it's pretty accurate, and correlating it with these things. And I discovered that most genres, in fact, all but one, there's a pretty strong correlation between how good a movie is and how much money it makes, right? Horror has almost none. Like it has a correlation. But like, I can't remember the numbers, but like the, for most genres, it was sort of its measured on a scale of one to minus two minus one where one would be an exact correlation, but a movie is the more money it makes, minus one would be the reverse. So the more money the more money it makes, the worse tends to be. And anything below about naught point two or and or above naught point minus to naught point minus two tends to be insignificant statistically. And it is about naught point two for horror films. And it's like, point 8.9. For every other genre. It's like a world of difference. And so it's so

Alex Ferrari 23:39
Interesting that I've thought about it. I mean, as you're saying, It's obvious, but yet, I've really never sat down and go, you know, a horror is the only genre that if, if it's a bad movie, it could still make a lot of money. And actually, sometimes the worst the movie, the the more money it makes it hence shark NATO's entire world.

Steven Follows 24:00
Exactly. But the key thing is that on average, across all movies, it doesn't matter. It just of every single genre, it matters to some degree and to a large degree, but the horror, it's kind of irrelevant. And I used to purge a moment ago, right, which is, everybody agrees it's a bad movie. Like, I know, this isn't this isn't my subjective opinion. It's like, you look at the reviews from from critics. And they're like, yeah, it's not very good. Critics don't like horror films generally. But okay, so let's move to audiences. Audiences generally give it middling reviews, like it's, there's some people out there will love it. But when you compare it to movies that get across the board, great scores and things. It's, it's nowhere close.

Alex Ferrari 24:36
How many are there? How many are there? There's like three or four of them?

Steven Follows 24:39
I don't know. I haven't kept up. Okay. Like,

Alex Ferrari 24:42
I know, there's at least three.

Steven Follows 24:44
I think there'll be another one by the time we finished the recording. Like, of course, why not? I don't mean that in any kind of, I'm not being pejorative here, right? Like if that's what people want. So people aren't going to it for quality. But then if you look at I'm sure if you did this analysis With the quality of the food of a restaurant, and how successful it is, you would find certain things like McDonald's, where even if you really like it, no one is saying this is great quality. They're saying, Yeah, I like this. But there are other factors going on. And in that case, it might be the marketing, it might be the convenience, obviously, price plays a big part in that. And so it get when I was doing this analysis between critics ratings and profitability, I was thinking, Okay, well, if, if it doesn't matter if it's any good, if everyone agrees, it doesn't matter, what does matter. And I that just kind of stuck in my brain for a while, and I just couldn't get it out. And I couldn't stop thinking about well, it's not like there'll be one answer, you know, but there's got to be patterns. And arguably, if the horror audience don't care how much your film costs, I mean, obviously, they do to some degree, but of all genres, they care the least. And if they don't care if it's any good, then maybe they're being a bit more. Maybe that what their intentions are easier to read as to what they do want from a horror film. And so that just took me down the path of saying, Okay, well, obviously, you have to start with how many horror films are there? And what type are they and you have to categorize them, and all sorts of things. And then I just sort of kind of grew. And it got to the point where I had completed research on most, if not all parts of the film value chain. So right, from development of films, what types they are adaptations and titles of movies, through to financing. And obviously, the whole production process and post production and also marketing, distribution, and all the different windows of release, and festivals and things. By the end, I sort of hadn't realized, like, I'd sort of done all of that. And yeah, so then in the end, I put it together as a report, that's a couple of 100 pages. And it's available on pay what you want, it's a minimum of a pound, which is about $1. Now, will be about half $1 in a few weeks, a few cents after Brexit. But yeah, to pay what you want model and I just thought, you know what that's especially with horror, like, Can you imagine selling a report per $1,000? And like, the only people that are by it would be studios and the actual people who need this who are going to change what they're doing. independent filmmakers, and yeah, so that's awesome. Yeah, it's been a really interesting journey. And I

Alex Ferrari 27:20
want to know, what is the genre in what is the horror genre that is the most successful you know, as far as box office return, or just return on investment? The sub genre in the horse like parent? Yeah,

Steven Follows 27:32
well, thanks. Well, let's let's you know, let's start by talking about what is horror because, um, you know, I was expecting some subjective complicated questions I wasn't expecting my first question would be what's a horror film? And I think I even went to read it and said, Hey, guys, what's a horror film? And everyone went, Oh, my God, you can't you know, who knows? And everyone argues and, and there's films like Hugh Jackman's Van Helsing, where I looked at maybe 20 different film listing sites on about half said it was a horror half a horror film at all. Well, half of them say it is

Alex Ferrari 28:07
insane. It's a it's a it's a it's an action. It's like a thriller, an action thriller. And even a thriller is kind of like a just a popcorn action film that happens to have some monsters in it. There's nothing really scary in it. If I remember correctly. I remember it being a horrible movie. That I do remember, what about I Am Legend? Oh, that's a rough one may see now that one is a hybrid of an action horror film. I feel so that is a heart.

Steven Follows 28:34
Yeah, my, basically when I did the research, so this may be not true for the last couple of years. But my understanding was, that's the most expensive horror film ever made. No, everyone agrees is our But anyway, so working out what a horror film was was wasn't the easiest. But then, as we talked about, that wasn't enough. I had to sub classify I had to work out within that what types of films are out there. So through all sorts of different methods, which I'm happy to talk about, but aren't really that important. I ended up coming up with six different subcategories of horror, which overlap so there are films that do more than one so we had found footage killer, paranormal, gore and disturbing that's one psychological and then monsters and it's interesting because you you see very clear patterns with budget so found footage movies tends to be the most of them are on the lowest budget whereas monster movies and Perhaps unsurprisingly, because you need to pay for the monster tends to be more expensive. And what that does is that also somewhat leads the profitability answer so found footage, movies, I calculate that about four out of five had made made a profit with one very, very important caveat, one important caveat which is about to disappoint every diner independent film I know exactly what it I know exactly what is going to be the got into thesis like it gets into theaters if it's in theaters, then four out of five of those find footage films, and they make a profit of some kind.

Alex Ferrari 30:07
We'll be right back after a word from our sponsor. And now back to the show. Well, let me But let me ask you a question. How much does the Blair Witch and Paranormal Activity activity skew those numbers?

Steven Follows 30:27
Well, it's a good question. So I've tried to account for that. And what I'm looking for is is, in some cases, averages, some cases, medians. It's not just those films, but at the same time, and and those films by the way, just as a data analysis thing are really annoying, because they do skew numbers, man,

Alex Ferrari 30:44
because they're they're anomalies. They're both anomalous.

Steven Follows 30:46
Well, see, that's the question, right? So is it it's like saying, What's the return on buying a lottery ticket, if you just exclude all the lottery winners? Because they're the unusual ones, then you haven't got a true summary of the market? So both including and excluding them was complicated. I can't remember how I accounted for this, but I definitely didn't just average all of them. Because that will tell you that's right. I looked at how many them? That's right, I looked at how many of them were likely to have made money. And how many of them were likely to have made a small amount of profit or a small loss, small loss or a lightly a big loss. And so those two would have just counted for two, you know, one each, it wouldn't have been. Okay, so paranormal Paranormal Activity made 20,000% of its budget back. And that just skews the numbers. But we shouldn't necessarily exclude them. You know, if if, if it is a lottery winner, then to some degree, it is out there as a prize. One thing that actually I wanted to say is something that you said earlier on, which I think is what you said was absolutely right. And I think there's one extra note to make on it. You said, If independent filmmakers want to make a buy a lottery ticket, then that's fine. Absolutely. I totally agree with that. And in fact, arguably, that's the essence of being an artist and a filmmaker. But the key is, do they sell it as a lottery ticket?

Alex Ferrari 32:05
No, they don't. They never do. They never do.

Steven Follows 32:08
They never that's the bit where you fool down. It's not making the movie that will make any money. That's fine. That's all, you know, good luck, promising that it will make the paranormal activity that will

Alex Ferrari 32:19
listen every single film business plan you have ever seen that has it's a horror movie, Blair Witch paranormal activity are in the models. Am I wrong? Every single one.

Steven Follows 32:30
I I've seen them a disproportionate number of low budget ones, and ones that weren't made. But and I've seen them in almost all of them. But if I were an investor, or and I do occasionally advise investors, who are people I know friends or friends or whatever. And if there's someone says I'm making a horror film, and I turned to their comps, and they have five comps, and two of them are those ones, I just close the report and say there's no point investing, because they're not being honest. It doesn't mean don't mention them, but put them in a separate box going by, you know, here are the 510 comps that we think are relevant. By the way, there is a secret special lottery also involved in this could be this. Exactly. And it's not untrue. You know, it's just that you can't make that out to be that every day. And the thing is the investors know that. And they actually if you're honest with them, they don't they're not, they're not really investing with you to make money. Because people who want to make money don't invest in film. They're doing it because they want to have a really good ride or they want if they feel like the movie should be made, or they believe in you. And they want to have the best investment that's possible, given those conditions. But if it's purely about profit, I mean, no one in the right mind says, oh, you're only interested in profit. I know film, you know, it's it's not that

Alex Ferrari 33:40
it's there's there. It's such an unknown quantity when you're making a film and actually trying to regenerate revenue to to it because it's such an expensive art form. In general, it's one of the most expensive art forms on the planet. If you have to, you have to generate an ROI on your film. And it is very difficult to quantify it. Because there's too many variables in it. Like if you make a widget, you take the widget to market and you sell the widget for 999. And the widget costs you 250 and you have a marketing plan and you put it out into the marketplace. And there you go. And that that's the widget films aren't widgets, films are massive conglomerations of widgets being moved, and then there's outside forces constantly shaping it. And let's not even talk about egos, and drama, and politics, and distribution. I mean, there's so many variables. Again, that's why I feel that a film entrepreneur method or model is a little bit more stable, because you look at it as multiple revenue streams and multiple things that you can do off of one movie and a lot of times the movie doesn't even have to make money for you to be able to generate money because you're building a business around the movie. But that's a whole other conversation. Yeah, I agree with you.

Steven Follows 35:03
So yeah, it's one of those things where it's, it's rich and poor. So a feast and famine. So if you're, if you're found footage, film makes it into theaters, which, and I don't just mean one theater that your cousin owns. I mean, like, it's got a distributor, it's got a release, it's got marketing, then actually, you're probably onto a good chance of making the original budget back. Obviously, that's heavily skewed by the fact that you probably spent less to make it the most, you know, most of the films but still profits or profit. But the the number of horror films is going through the roof. And actually, the percentage of horror films that actually make it into theaters is declining quite considerably. Expect and that's especially considering the fact that more and more films are being released in theaters every year. We're on sort of seven 800 in the US and eight 900 a year in the UK, which is bonkers, just completely mad. We're coming up to like 2020 a week 20 new movies every week. And really what we're talking about is that the 50 top grossing movies of all of each year account for 75% of the box office, both in America and Britain. So really, that's the top movie each week. So Hobson shore comes out this week plus 19 other movies he never heard of next week, another whole 20 and helps the shore is still out.

Alex Ferrari 36:14
And then the new and the new whatever studio movie that wants to come, you know, the Avengers or something like that comes out. Yeah, exactly. It's insane. Also, what is the most profitable sub genre? Apparently,

Steven Follows 36:28
it was found footage, so found footage was the most profitable, but also that's sort of the type of horror film. There's also you could look at them as sort of genres as well like hybrid genres like horror, comedy, or horror, action. And interestingly, horror, comedy and horror romance where the marginally the most profitable, especially but marginally. But again, if you look at the other end of the spectrum, horror, fantasy and horror action with the least but they're the most expensive, so it's so hard.

Alex Ferrari 36:55
Well, it's a horror romance, which is is very rare. They're rare. They're not a lot of them out there. So that I mean, horror comedies and horror romances are rare, but generally, and there is that myth in the industry that horror comedies make no money. That Yeah,

Steven Follows 37:11
proportionately they do, but I tell you why. And it comes down to one thing, that horror. It's just two letters long. And it's it's something that horror filmmakers almost never think about. And yet, when when you think about it, you're like, actually, that makes complete sense. I'm deliberately trailing it here. Can you guess what it is? I don't see. Let us look. TV, the TV. So if you make some blood splattered, horrific film, and fine, how many TV channels can that be broadcast on? conversely, if you make a horror comedy, that's a bit more comedy than horror. It's going to be on more TV channels, it's going to be on more slots, it's going to be able to travel more. So I'm not saying do that I'm not giving any specific advice. But it's definitely if you're looking for longevity if you're looking for a long tail of income. If you're looking for more territories and things like that television is a big factor and television has a very particular type of horror film at once. And it may not be what horror fans want as well as I go through this may be sort of sacrilegious to horror fans who are like no this is watering stuff down and whatever. And maybe that's right, maybe it is.

Alex Ferrari 38:27
I mean, like you're right, but a horror romance and a horror comedy by its nature is a watered down version of horror movies. Not a straight up slasher you know, it's a little bit funny and stuff. It's it could still be gory, but it's a completely different animal. So it's kind of watering it down and jet like that's why Shaun of the Dead is is probably one of the more successful was I think it's probably the most successful horror comedy of all time, if I'm not mistaken.

Steven Follows 38:52
Yeah, I mean, I can't remember top of my head, but it certainly sounds credible to me. Yeah, absolutely. It could be. It certainly did incredible numbers. And it's also brilliant film is. So yeah, so you look at certain kinds of films do well, on television. So for example, monster movies don't tend to do as well as psychological movies. And that maybe that's because monster movies are slightly more gory, and slightly more scary, and you and you kind of don't want to go. I mean, if you're just thinking about television, you don't want to go too scary when it comes to blood and gore. And crucially, you really don't want to have a lot of sex and nudity. So again, I can't explain the methods but just go with it. For now. I managed to categorize most of the movies to how much sort of sex and nudity they had in them on a scale of one to 10. And once you get to, like, I don't know, six or seven, you're getting far fewer broadcasts on television. You know, the ideal spot was sort of three, four or five, six out of 10. So obviously it needs to deliver something you don't want to make it completely sanitized. But the same time if it's if it's got, you know, Quite hardcore nudity or sex, and it's going to propose certain channels and certain times on other channels. And so if you're thinking this purely from a financial point of view, and you think you know what the actual is unlikely, and also, maybe I'll make much money, and I'll have high costs, but television is where I'm going to get to, then you need to make sure that you're not breaking the rules and making it something that television just can't show.

Alex Ferrari 40:24
What I find what I find so wonderful about this conversation is that we're looking at a horror movie as a product. And at Where can we distribute this widget to as many places as humanly possible to return on to get an ROI, to make money to generate revenue. And by doing this, I mean, look, art is one thing, and business is another thing. But like I say, all the time, the word business has twice as many letters as the word show. So there's a reason for that. And by thinking about your film as like, Okay, well, I want to be able to make as much money as I can with this. So what genre of horror what, where can I go? How much nudity Can I have in it, and it could be like, you know what I want to I want to focus on this super niche audience that I'm going to self distribute, and they want to see a lot of nudity and a lot of Gore. And that's what that's the angle. I'm going to understanding, though, that this blocks out all these other potential revenue streams. Yeah, exactly. You have to walk into it, knowing that and not to be oops, what do you mean, I spent a half a million dollars on a blood fez, and I can't reach her and I can't get any ROI, I can't, I can't get any money back. Because the audience that I focused on, can't generate the kind of revenue that this budget needs to generate in order for it to be a successful film. So there's always that balancing, it's always that Balancing Act

Steven Follows 41:47
Of and I think, you know, an artist amongst the things that artists does is that they deal with compromises, you know, or they deal with what's being presented to them. So here's your location. Here's your line to dialogue, how are you going to turn this into something that's uniquely yours? So why is it Tarantino different from Wes Anderson, it's not just the situations they're in. It's also how they respond to them. And so there is a real opportunity and need for artists and filmmakers to be artists to bring their artists selves to the business side of things and say, okay, exactly as you laid out, here are two things I want to do. I want to have this this level of nudity for this audience over this purpose. But actually, there's this other business reason not to, okay, compromise way, hit up, actually, I'm going to make sure I do one of them really well, because it doesn't matter which but if I water it down, it won't work. Or actually, no, there is a middle ground or I can do both versions, or whatever it will be.

Alex Ferrari 42:38
Or Amber, I didn't interrupt you, but or you could just or you could just drop the budget from 500,000 to 50,000. And do whatever the heck you want. Because that audience that you're focusing on, can generate potentially has that that has the potential to generate the revenue for you to make your money back and actually be a profitable film at half a million dollars. Being a hardcore slasher film. With Dino, it's going to be with a lot of nudity, you're just cutting off a lot of revenue streams. So it's all about what you want to do and what you want the end game to be for your film, you could go you could do whatever you want, you can do a middle ground, like you said, or you can change the game. You know, it's like if I'm going to spend half a million, I'm going to have to do X, XY and Z in order to get that money back. Unless it's daddy's money. And then don't worry about fun.

Steven Follows 43:26
Yeah, but true. But although you can't make a career out of that, and this dad does that rich. And I think that's the thing is,

Alex Ferrari 43:32
there's only a few daddy's that rich.

Steven Follows 43:35
I think that's I've seen filmmakers who've managed to sort of basically skip the first step, they've been managed to jump in at a higher level. And, okay, on the one hand, they've managed to get further faster, great, but they're not ready for that, you know, let's say that we could skip it so that you could you could be one of the I don't know, 10 people who, however many are on the track for the Olympic gold medal 100 meters, we're not going to win, you're going to look like an idiot, and you're going to pull a muscle. And yes, if you, you practice and you earn your way up there, and you get there through grit. And obviously, you still need money, you still need support, you know, in the in the analogy of training, you know, there are certain sports like rowing or ice skating where you need money and you need support needs to be driven to these things and whatever. But at the end of the day, if you're earning your way forward, then you'll be prepared. When you're in the final, you will have earned it and you'll be able to be there year on year on year. If you've bought your way in. I mean, I'm sure you can pay enough to race Usain Bolt. I'm sure there is a price. But that doesn't mean you're when it doesn't mean you can do it again.

Alex Ferrari 44:32
No, there's no question and I've seen I mean working in post production for as many years as I have. I've seen so many filmmakers who got their first movie was a $5 million movie, but they had never set foot on set on a set before and you like you Why would you do it? Why would you go up to the plate and face down a major league pitcher and try to swing the bat when you have never picked a bat before it's just lunacy, it's more ego than anything else. It's sustainable. It was kinda like doing it. You couldn't you basically you have one jot. So I promise you, if you get a $5 million budget for your first film, and it dies, I promise you, nobody else is going to give you money. And because you didn't hustle your way up there, and you just kind of skipped the line, you don't have anything to, you don't have any foundation to kind of land on. In other words, the armor that you put on from hustling and grinding, year after year in this business, that's what helps you with stay with Stan blows like that. But if you just skip the line, and just go, Hey, guys, I'm here the first brisk when that comes, you're done. Because that makes

Steven Follows 45:54
it totally, and you're going to feel awful that you're going to feel like a cheat, you're going to feel like you don't know what you're doing, like you're a fraud. And the real truth is everyone feels like that constantly. And you're never gonna feel like, Oh, I know what I'm doing. But at least in your case, it will be slightly true. And it feels really, it just sucks. It really sucks. Whereas if you earn your way there and someone and you have a failure, or something's unfair, or just someone's unfair to you, you'll be much stronger to be able to shake it off. Like you said, you have to earn your armor, you know, because then it's yours and it fits you. And it's like a shell rather than just buying someone else's because it won't fit and it won't last.

Alex Ferrari 46:28
I mean, at this point in the game, I have rhinoceros hide. You know, I've got shrapnel left and right. I mean it that but you know, trust me, I wish I would have not had to go through all of this. But it's who I am. And it makes me so resilient to so many. You know poundings that this business gives you day in and day out. And, you know, everyone listening, if you do have an awkward, like I tell people all the time, like if someone gave me a million dollars, right now to make a movie, I would tell them, I'll go look, it was a blanket, it was a blank check, here's a million dollars that you can make whatever movie you want. I wouldn't make 10 movies, I would make 10 $100,000 movies. Because on a business standpoint, and on a creative standpoint, I can I can diversify my portfolio. And the chances of one of those movies hitting or making enough money to cover all of them is better. Or if each one of them makes $125,000, which is a lot less to make a million dollars off of one. Guess what? You're profitable fail? You made money. Does that make sense? Yeah, totally. But

Steven Follows 47:34
let me ask you this. Let's say that someone gave you the million dollars, and they didn't mention movies. Would you as Alex, how much of if any of that money would you actually spend on movies?

Alex Ferrari 47:47
You know, luckily, you know what, but this is my business. So like, even if I yeah, like if I had a million dollars, going to take some of that money and build out other parts of my indie film, hustle, business.

Steven Follows 47:57
That's not movies, that's business investment. That's that's reinvesting in a presumably successful business don't count. Like, often someone gives you just inherit a million dollars, tax free all taxes paid. How much do you as Alex actually put into making a movie yourself?

Alex Ferrari 48:15
I would I would make some I would make a movie or two, there's no question. I would do that. Because I mean, I I make movies all the time. And if I had the money, and the money was not an issue, you know, my first two films were made for under $10,000 each, and they were fairly, and they were fairly successful for at that budget range without question. So if I had $100,000, I would probably make a couple a couple films, I would make a tooth, I would make 250 $1,000 movies? Absolutely. And I'll make it I would do it without question. Would I invest the entire million in the only a million? No, that's stupid. That's that second million, right? Well, that's the second I would, I would slowly I would slowly, I will take 10 or 20% of that money and make movies and see what happens. Why not? But you've got 80% sitting somewhere in in bonds, or gold or whatever else you whatever people do with money. Yeah, film, whatever, whatever. Yeah, whatever rich people do with money. We have no idea what that

Steven Follows 49:14
they don't come to us for obvious reasons. The old saying about the film industry is that a way to make a small fortune in the film industry is to start with a large fortune. And I think that's what you need to do. You know, I think of it as golf money, you know, money that people spend playing golf. No one says, What's my ROI on my ROI on golf? What's my ROI on going to the opera? They go? Yeah, that was fun. And yet you're offering them something fun and they might make some money? Who knows?

Alex Ferrari 49:39
So it's all it's all about how you look at it. Like I like I've said before with, you know, with being a film entrepreneur, there is a way to make money and make multiple revenue streams off of a film or multiple films. Because there's been many many case studies of people doing it. It's just think differently about how if you're looking at the movie to be your main revenue, Gen. Raider, it could be a part of that revenue stream. But it doesn't have to be you don't have to put all the pressure on it if you're smart. I mean, look, it's George Lucas said it very clearly. The money's in the lunchbox, idiots. You know, like, it's true. like they've made much more money licensing Star Wars than any money they made in the box off. Have they made money in the box office? Of course. But do you know, I always always use this example. My friend works at Disney. And I asked them like, how much did frozen? Like what? What's going on with like the back end of frozen? And he's like, dude, do you know the dresses, that that little girls were just the dresses, just the dresses that you buy for like 10 or $15. At the Disney Store or wherever. They've made a billion dollars off of that off of the dresses alone, not the lunchboxes not anything else, that cartoon, just the dresses. And by the way, frozen also made a billion dollars as a revenue stream from the film itself. But they make so much more money. While they gross, the gross 2 billion whether

Steven Follows 51:08
I mean, I'm sure that the margin on those dresses is 99%, once they're in the shop, whereas with movies, it's like,

Alex Ferrari 51:14
but again, using the movie as a marketing strategy to sell other product lines and sell other and create other revenue streams. It's a business. Look, it's the Hollywood's been doing it since Star Wars basically, before Star Wars, you know it, no one really did it. But Star Wars kind of started that genre. And now basically everybody every studio, that is part of their marketing plan. So why can't you use that for independent filmmaking as well? Well, totally. And

Steven Follows 51:40
that also goes back to what you were saying before because hora has amongst the lowest marketing rates. merchandising rates, yes. Also has absolutely the lowest amount of money made from airlines and soundtracks and things like that. And so we were talking before about horror being the most profitable. Well, yeah, but we're not measuring merchandising, we're not measuring soundtracks, you know. And so, yeah, it's amplifying your risk. And then all of these risks are fine to take if you know what you're taking, but is to think about what it would be and what you're putting, you're buying, you're putting even more pressure on this on this lottery ticket, because, okay, sure, if you water it down, or you make it more television friendly, maybe it's got a longer tail. But if it doesn't, the core long term value of a horror film might be its franchise ability, it might be the idea of making 23456 others, or is the opening weekend and the homerun, for the first or the VOD sale that you do for the first five years, something like that. That might be a small number of deals that might be able to be astronomically large for you. But after that, there's less whereas if you invent the next frozen example, I always think of when I think of what frozen is for independent film is once Have you seen once? Yeah,

Alex Ferrari 52:54
yeah, that was an independent musician.

Steven Follows 52:56
Yeah, yeah. It's like, I don't know. 15 years ago, Irish film beautiful, really low budget musical. If you haven't seen it, I highly recommend

Alex Ferrari 53:03
it. It was Oscar nominated. Yeah.

Steven Follows 53:05
Yeah, it did so well. And it deserves to. It's not the perfect movie. It's just really good. And especially considering the budget. And it's a musical like, who does low budget musical? And I don't have a numbers for it. But I'd certainly remember when I was in New York A few years ago, there was a Broadway show of it. And it was also at least a few soundtracks that were being advertised on the subway. And so that's from an independent movie, like, and they own the songs. And so the song revenue would have been more than the box office should take that they took, I'm sure. And so it's okay. It's easier to make a franchise if you're Disney. But it doesn't mean it's impossible.

Alex Ferrari 53:39
Oh, no, I've got tons of case studies, tons of case studies of filmmakers making more money off of ancillary products than they do off the movie themselves and built and built entire empires around a film a documentary, or a feature or a group of feature films. Oh, god, there's, there is a lot of there are a lot of examples out there. But just people don't think this way. They just it's not taught. It's not taught at all.

Steven Follows 54:06
Well, it's not appreciated, you know, people don't. Because we are all people that run away during the circus, the most sensible among us, is like if I give you an example. So years and years ago, I was I was going out with a lawyer. And I was I was chatting to her about what I'd done that day. And I had actually been running a training course with a filmmaker over here called Chris Jones. And Chris Jones is the gorilla filmmakers handbook and really interesting guy, he runs the London screenwriters festival. And he and I had been running a course together during the day. And the setup of the course was that I was the sort of producer II type giving the sensible answers. And Chris was the more kind of dream big filmmaker, and it's a reflection of our real selves. And Chris, and I've got a nice dynamic and we get on well, so actually, it worked out well. And I was having a date that evening with a lawyer and she said, What have you been up to? And I was like, Oh, well, I'm running this course. And, and I'm, you know, and I described what I just said, and the central one and she almost spat out her food and she was like, What? And she was asked like, what do you? What are you confused by? And she's like, you're the sensible one. And I'm like, Yeah, she's, I mean, you. You're crazy. You're like the wacky one in my world, like, and I was like, no, hold on, we should talk about this. Because in my world, I'm the boring one. I'm the one that you are everyone towards. Like, there aren't many people on the other end of me who are going No, no Stephens not going into enough detail. You know, like, if this isn't making people on the other side, and her I was the craziest, she could imagine, like, not in a kind of interpersonal way, like, Hello, I'm Stephen. But just more like, you just teaching filmmakers and you don't know what you're doing. And they don't know what they're doing. And they're just paying for cause and you're just running a cause. And they're just making things without business plans. And like, it was just like, being the most sensible person in the circus still means it still makes you a circus performer. That's awesome. She couldn't believe it.

Alex Ferrari 55:53
And you're still a carny, sir. You're still a car?

Steven Follows 55:55
Yeah, exactly. And I love that, by the way, I don't, you know, that's where it was good for her as well. Like, you know, the most wacky lawyer is nowhere near the most boring filmmaker, and that's okay. Everyone's chosen the race, they want to run it and where they are in it. And I think that, that we have to remember that because film industry likes to pretend that nothing is knowable. It loves that William Goldman quote that no one knows anything. But they forget the other half of that conversation, which is about no one person in the motion picture industry knows exactly what's going to work out, you know, it's a every time it's a guess, out of the gate, and hopefully an educated guess. And so that it speaks partly to the fact that the team effort, but also to the fact that it's not unknowable, it's just not entirely predictable, there has to be an educated guess. But to have an educated guess, you've got to be educated in some way. You've got to go out and find facts, but then you've got to choose what to do.

Alex Ferrari 56:49
But the thing is this, but you know, many businesses are educated guesses, you know, like, you know, Facebook, Google Apple, like, you know, when you make a product, you don't know what the revenue is going to come back, you might have, you know, ideas, you might have numbers or statistics of what it could be. It's just as a little bit more stable. But you know, when Apple put out the iPod, or the iPhone, they might have had a guess of what it was going to be, but they had no idea. They didn't know exactly the number. So there is always in business in general, you don't know exact numbers every time almost, almost, it's very rare that you do have that kind of information you do, then you can then you're an Oracle.

Steven Follows 57:30
Yeah, well, I think also, the filmmakers forget that. Because we we struggle to get control, we get struggle to get control of the creative parts of the whether it gets funded, whether it gets made where they get seen, we try and win every battle. And we try and see every battle as a reflection of our expression, or our freedom, freedom, our artistic self. And actually, there are some battles that you should be really keen to lose, or at least not care where they go. So a good example for me is the poster, where filmmakers see it as the extension of the film. And actually, it's a piece of marketing materials, like the person that invents the next kick out or mass, but it doesn't get to design the label. And it doesn't matter what the label looks like, as long as it honestly sells the product, and people end up eating your product. And so as long as people go and see your film, and it hasn't been mis sold, you shouldn't be in charge of the poster at all. You should get someone who knows about posters, right? I see. So many filmmakers are like, No, no, I want to put all this on who I want to design it or whatever. Or like no, no, that's to the word they use. But like it's to marketing to commercial, and you're like, you want to lose that battle. You want the trailers without selling the

Alex Ferrari 58:37
same thing. Seen filmmakers try to edit their own trailers. I'm like get a professional trailer editor who knows how to sell your your kind of movie that knows how to do promos who knows how to

Steven Follows 58:51
Sell your movie, they're not trying to secretly destroy your vision. Best they don't care about your vision.

Alex Ferrari 58:56
It's the art is the art and the ego. It's the art in the ego at this point. Totally.

Steven Follows 59:00
And actually, you know, it's there are a few fringe cases where it gets really kind of like almost philosophically complicated, like if the movie is being mis sold. Like if the poster is fundamentally different. Did you mean most?

Alex Ferrari 59:12
Most Hollywood movies Got it?

Steven Follows 59:14
Yeah, exactly. In comparison to most movies, or like the trailer, like I remember, I won't say who but I have a friend who was involved somewhere along this process. And he was telling me about the the process of editing The King's Speech trailer. And the King's speech itself is got a beautiful grade. It's because it's a historic film. It's slightly more muted colors. And I can't do justice to describe it, but it's a very particular kind of color, but it's muted. When they did the trailer, they regretted the film. And the argument from the trailer point of view was, well, it's gonna play amongst loads of other trailers and it's gonna look dull, it's not gonna work in this format. And obviously the director was less than pleased and in the end got it from what I understand locked out of the edit suite for the trailer and there is a fringe case where at Because I can see both sides, I can see the market is saying, we're only trying to sell your movie and the filmmaker going No, no, no, this is misrepresenting it. This is my movie you're messing with. But in all other cases, let the marketeers do their job, because they're only trying to sell your movie. And you just works in a 90 minute, like emotion experience is not what's going to work on a one sheet. It's a different thing.

Alex Ferrari 1:00:24
We'll be right back after a word from our sponsor. And now back to the show. You know, and I love people who will always use David Fincher or Stanley Kubrick as examples of directors that have complete control of all the marketing. And I always like to point out like, Oh, you mean, David Fincher, the guy who's been in commercials for 20 odd years? You mean that guy's literally an expert at selling things? Did you mean that you mean the guy that guy the guy who basically reinvented commercial directing, in many ways? That that guy? Yeah, you know what? I'm gonna let him design a punch. I'm gonna let me Fincher could do your poster. Oh, yeah. Oh, you mean? Are you Stanley Kubrick? Oh, you mean one of the greatest geniuses that ever walked the filmmaking landscape? That guy? Oh, him. Yeah, let let him understand that. Yeah.

Steven Follows 1:01:20
He's outliers again, isn't it?

Alex Ferrari 1:01:22
And they point out outliers, but that's the thing and then it's the lottery ticket is either a lottery ticket mentality where people think you know, I'm gonna make a horror movie paranormal made $200 billion. I'm making a horror movie. It's a horror movie, I'm gonna make money. Or it's outliers like that, that they'll point to someone like David Fincher or Steven Spielberg, or James Cameron. I'm like, dude, you're talking about giants. You're talking about one out of 10 million people. Like, you know, I always like to use the example of James Cameron. Because when James Cameron went to go make Avatar The first avatar. I asked people like who else in the world could have done avatar? And, and people are like, What do you mean? Like, oh, Steven Spielberg? Like, no, no, no, no, wait a minute, who else could walk into Fox Studios, say I need $500 million, I'm going to take the first 100 million to develop new technology that does not exist about a franchise that has not, it's not a pre pre existing franchise. So we're going to start something from scratch. And we're going to doesn't really have any major star power in it, we'll have some faces of people we recognize, but it's not star power at all. And we're going to, we're kind of going to just kind of roll with it and see what we come up with.

Steven Follows 1:02:34
But I need to find, so we're gonna release it in a format that most theaters don't.

Alex Ferrari 1:02:38
Exactly, exactly. And we're gonna release it in a format. And we're going to in a format that in most theaters at this point don't have who else on the planet, um, being gone is I want you to answer the question. Who else? What other filmmaker on the planet at that time? Who would you who would have been able to make that film? Who would have done that check? You know, the answer is everyone who's listening to this game? I could have done that. Yeah. Even if it was easy. Cash, I didn't have to live in LA, like, Avengers end game. I could have done that. I'm like, wouldn't have run the damn craft service table. Are you kidding me? Like the guy. Let's not get into this because we'll go drink. Like we are. We are Dreamers. And we have and I talk heavily about ego. We, you know, and how ego is probably the biggest enemy of art, and what we do as filmmakers, because I've dealt with it all of my life. And it's gotten me into lots and lots of trouble over the years. And that is exactly what you just said, like I could have done that. That's complete and total ego. You know, unless it's maybe Chris Nolan sitting in the corner, saying, well, I could have done that. Well, I don't know if Chris Nolan. 10 of 20 years ago, however long 10 years 12 years it doesn't work with Christopher Nolan. Time doesn't apply. That's true. Obviously. We're in we're in Chris Nolan world. You're absolutely yeah. But you know, but there are but there wasn't anybody else in the world like so imagine being James Cameron when you're like, you know what, I'm literally the only human being on the planet who could do this. That seriously like

Steven Follows 1:04:20
the has a whole career together, doesn't it? You know, he's made on every level. He I mean, the Terminator is a movie that was made for nothing and made a fortune and built a franchise. And then the other end of the spectrum, Titanic being the most expensive film of its time, and making the most money like everything between the two.

Alex Ferrari 1:04:37
I mean, look, and look, look right now. Disney had to fudge the numbers of Avengers end game just to barely crack what avatar did 10 years or 11 years ago.

Steven Follows 1:04:50
Hmm.

Alex Ferrari 1:04:50
You know, like, I can't wait to see these three, three or four new avatar films he's gonna have. But anyway, let's get back on let's get back on

Steven Follows 1:04:58
Yeah Let's talk briefly about posters actually because I am bringing it up before I am. I'm posters are really interesting because you know, every movie is got a few maybe, but certainly you got one head headline poster. And they contain so much information like if we were, if we were studying semiotics or whatever we'd be like, Oh my god, there's so much this single image is telling you about the movie titles, star, tone, color, action, all this stuff. And but actually, there are many different types of poster. And so I thought I'd measure this, I thought it'd be really interesting. I didn't do it for all horror films ever. You'll be disappointed to hear 20 years

Alex Ferrari 1:05:32
Well, no, slacking.

Steven Follows 1:05:34
I know. Exactly. You know that there was certainly a day where I'm like, I'm gonna do it. I didn't. Um, the reason I gave him the end to myself, was this that movie posters since Photoshop have changed. And so it was not you're not comparing the same thing? So I know if I believe that, but I

Alex Ferrari 1:05:51
Sure why not. It's very irrational, sir.

Steven Follows 1:05:54
So yeah, I looked at them. And I did it a few different ways I didn't. Because this was three years ago, if I were doing this all over today, I would probably try and do some clever kind of AI based recognizing objects. I'm not quite sure if they're good enough yet to do it when movie posters because movie posters have multiple elements going on. But the way I did this was by showing them to load and other people on the Amazon Mechanical Turk, saying what's in this, you know, and then a lot of them, I checked myself as well. And it took time to build systems. But it came down to about eight different things that tend to seem to be on posters, whether it's a large face or a silhouette of a person or a scared woman, scared man is not on there. By the way, there's a strong leader, but it tends to be men and women, men or women, whereas there's no scare man trope. But one thing I did want to mention, which I just I was just a little tidbit that I really enjoyed. So I was building this system trying to get all this reliable data for these different posters and and learn the various stuff on posters is subjective. And sometimes data can be wrong. So I showed each poster to a number of people and then I could look for, you know, I don't know, I can't remember how many people I showed it to. But let's say five out of six people said that this is school building. On one side, it's a shed? Well, first of all, we know it's a building. And second of all, it's probably a shed, probably a school building. So but there was one question I asked when I knew there was a human on the cover on the poster, I asked them whether they thought it was the hero or the villain, because it doesn't matter if they're right or wrong, because films can have plot twists. It just matters whether you're selling it as this is the victim's experience, or the here is or here is the threat. And there was one film that every time I showed it to people got confusing answers, the data was just all over the place. And when I was doing it, I wasn't looking at the names of the films. I was using the names of the posters, and they had obviously I could look them up, but it wasn't what it was. And I was like, What is this poster that keeps confusing everyone? And it was Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. And it basically no one knows if it's the hero, the villain? Because it's both right. It was kind of funny, but but almost in every other movie, you could tell whether it's supposed to be the hero or the villain.

Alex Ferrari 1:08:01
Now what kind of what kind of poster? It does the best that did you do some sort of correlation where this kind of poster helped make, you know, in correlation with box office returns? Well, it's

Steven Follows 1:08:12
tricky. There aren't enough films that you could do all of that, because you'd need to do a bit of regression analysis because there aren't that many films out there. I mean, there are lots but they're, you know, we're talking I can't remember 10,000 or so. But then once you take down the ones just to the ones who have reasonable profitability stats, and then you split them by sub genre, and then you split them by poster tropes. You there's not enough there to be reliable really, because you know that some posters I did, I did look at the correlations between the types of tropes that you have and the type of movies. So certain types of horror films are more likely to have, what one type or another because that was relevant in and that was interesting, but I couldn't do it for profitability. So for example, horror comedies are more likely to have the lineup of people

Alex Ferrari 1:08:59
yeah, 345 zombie land,

Steven Follows 1:09:01
right. Exactly. Yeah. Whereas romances have a large face on them. A large face was quite popular. And so yeah, you know, horror action films very rarely have a scared woman on the cover. Whereas it's quite a big thing for like dramas and stuff like that. So they all have different kinds of things. Mostly, it's about faces, it's about eyes, being frightened, you know, that kind of stuff. And you sometimes you can combine tropes, but they tend to look quite busy and quite complicated. Whereas what you really want is to have one simple just like, this is what this poster is about, you know, it's about seeing an eye or a skull, or is a hand or a hat,

Alex Ferrari 1:09:43
or something like

Steven Follows 1:09:44
that. Exactly, yeah. Or a building and largely it comes down to are you telling on the poster? Are you telling the story of the victim or victims, or are you telling the story of the threat and in some cases, it would be like if it's a movie About a cabin in red. It's the cabin,

Alex Ferrari 1:10:03
right? It's Friday. It's Friday. Right?

Steven Follows 1:10:05
Exactly, yeah. Or if it's about some unknown thing, then you could have the victim. Like there being the person who's terrified. And sometimes it's about the hero or heroine, you know, like a lot the Resident Evil films or world wars, he has the kind of Hero Pose,

Alex Ferrari 1:10:22
you know, the poster that just comes to mind. I think it's one of the more brilliant horror film posters of all time is Jaws, because it shows the threat and the victim, but the victim doesn't know the threats there. So it's a tense, you have a tension filled poster. So you're actually creating suspense with in the image of the poster, which the entire movie is a masterclass in suspense. So it's, it doesn't take a lot. It's a very simple concept that that one concept alone and talking about posters and marketing, the one thing we haven't talked about, which is something very unique to the horror genre, is star power. It's not needed. It's not a needed thing in horror films. And I'd love to hear what your thoughts are in your data on if you have a movie star of some sort, versus nobodies, or no name actors, and how that how that helps or hurts box office?

Steven Follows 1:11:15
Yeah, that's a good question. So I'd say that you write of all genres, it's one of the ones that matters the least even to something like animation, because you got to get the parents in, if you want to call that genre, but you know, family animated films, you still need some famous, quite often, it certainly helps. Whereas your horror, your hero or your your famous thing is the concept. It is the idea like the purge, or saw or whatever. That said, you might want to put a star in it for almost insurance purposes. And what I mean by that is, it might make you feel more confident. Maybe it motivates behavior a bit. No one's pretending that it is about those stars, but those stars might tip people over the edge and allow people to be more confident. And also, if you look at the way movies are sold nowadays, having somebody who's an eloquent marketeer for the movie, be the star look at the rock does. Our Tom Cruise those Pete they sell their movies like they are selling movies. And so arguably having a star that can go on Late Night? who is an expert at, you know, saying how much they loved the script. And that's why they got involved in their character is particularly interesting, whatever, that might really help. So

Alex Ferrari 1:12:32
are someone with a large following, or someone with a large social media following or

Steven Follows 1:12:35
something like that? Exactly. Although obviously depends what their following is like, I think if they're not fans like Kardashian, I'm not sure. Like, I think that was what they were trying to do with Paris Hilton. Yeah, you read my stuff? Yeah. Yeah. So I don't think it's nearly as important as it used to be. So I don't think it's nearly as important as it is for other genres. But it still can help. And also it might be that that's what gets it greenlit. So maybe that it does a different job.

Alex Ferrari 1:13:02
But But unlike but unlike other genres, I mean, look, anytime you could put a star in a movie, do it. That's just a general general rule of thumb, if you have if you have the potential of putting a movie star or some recognizable face or bankable name in a movie, do it, why wouldn't you but it doesn't, it making of that movie is not necessary, it's not necessary. Like if you make an action movie, to go international, you definitely need some sort of bankable star in it to make to really hedge your bets. Same thing with comedy. Same thing with drama. Family is a little bit different. You can maybe get away with family as but but also if you're trying to sell back to lifetime, some of the old you know some older TV actors, you know, Dean Kane or things like that people who, but they're recognizable faces in that genre. And they've established themselves in that genre. But horror is one of those that you don't need it, obviously, because some of the most successful horror movies of all time, don't have movie stars in them like paranormal activity.

Steven Follows 1:14:01
And because the if you think about I mean, I don't know what the right term for it is. But what's the thing about your movie? So the thing about hobbies, ensure the movie that just come out? Is the rock or state and that's what it's about, well, action. That's the thing. With drama, that's just one loads of awards, its quality, its experience, you know, whatever. For horror films, it's the concept of the film, that will trump almost any star. Yes. I mean, I there I mean, I Am Legend, and what was he maybe they're different. But almost every other horror film with famous names. It's about the concept more than it is the names.

Alex Ferrari 1:14:35
Yeah, but World War Z. But World War Z can't be made without Brad Pitt. Like there's nothing to justify a budget of that size for a zombie horror movie. It's not going to work

Steven Follows 1:14:43
Correctly, but it's doing a different thing, isn't it? So two ends up getting it greenlit it's a kind of insurance. It makes everyone feel confident. And I'm sure it does. Hell if I don't. I mean, obviously, unless you pick the wrong star. I don't think it's putting people off but it's not having the transformative effect that it does in other genres. And it's interesting you talk about Family films because family films are extensively you imagine they don't need any stars because it's kids and no one's famous to a kid. But it's the parents who drive them there and who decide Oh, yeah, that I've heard that name or, you know, think about Mr. Popper's Penguins with Jim Carrey or anything with Steve Martin or Eugene Levy, or Eddie Murphy to some degree. This is not about the audience. This is about the audience chauffeurs

Alex Ferrari 1:15:24
At a certain at a certain budget level, but like if you're dealing in the half a million dollar or below Yeah, world, then it does it. Yeah, of course, when you're when you're talking about 15 2030 $40 million. Yes, absolutely. But at a million dollar or below budget, if you're selling it to lifetime or haulmark, you know, and also selling it overseas, you know, Dean Cain has a lot of juice there, you know, or those kinds of you know, or the million of, you know, x Melrose Place, or Beverly Hills, 90210 stars who are made a career out of making those kind of films, then that makes a lot more sense. And they're much more affordable as well, then a bigger star. I was gonna ask you, we talked about this a little earlier. But I think this is something unique to the horror genre is those ancillary products, those t shirts, and, and hats, and mugs and action figures and things like that. The horror genre is a unique genre, because there, that audience that niche wants those products, they go after those products, they buy those products in larger quantities than people who just consume a drama or a comedy. You know, for you to buy a T shirt about a comedy, it's got to be pretty epic. But a horror fan will buy a horror t shirt if it's got a cool image on it. And it doesn't have to be as big of a deal as the other genres are. So there is a lot of potential for generation of ancillary product lines within the horror genre because they like to buy things and also, arguably, to physical media is a much bigger selling point for horror genre for horror audiences than it is for other for other genres because horror audiences love to collect, they'd love to have the physical blu ray DVDs or even VHS.

Steven Follows 1:17:18
Yeah, I mean, yeah, you're right. And you're definitely right. There are other genres where it's far less successful. But I would say that we're still operating on a very small level now niche making, uh, yeah, exactly. If you're making a very low budget film, actually, that's fine. If you look at how creators on YouTube or musicians how they can survive by a comment what there was some number that was out there, like, if they sell one t shirt, a year and a concert every two years, they'll make money or they have a Patreon with a certain number of

Alex Ferrari 1:17:46
it's 1000. If you have 1000 true fans is that article by a guy who was a co founder of Wired Magazine, if you have 1000. Yeah, if you have 1000 true fans, and they each pay you $10 a month, you you make a living as an artist,

Steven Follows 1:18:04
as elute Lee and I think that that can work on the on the lowest level, that doesn't scale very well. But that's not necessarily a problem. Because what was the point at scale, if you're making content you want to make with an audience who love what you do, and you're paying, giving, giving yourself a good income as a person, it doesn't matter if you're not making $30 million movies, because, you know, you might be able to give you more scale, but it's going to give you other problems. And that's something I always tell people all the time is like if you're able to do what you love, make a living doing it and provide a service or be of service to an audience that wants to consume your content, and you're able to make a living. I mean, isn't that the dream? Like, you don't need to live in the Hollywood Hills, you don't need to buy into the the story that Hollywood sells so beautiful, they're really good at selling the sizzle, but they're not real good at selling that steak. And they know that it's not it's not good, but in the sense that you know, who doesn't want to live in Hollywood, everyone who lives in Hollywood, like everyone, they have to be like, they are not happy. You don't want their dream like this, this fantasy that they're selling you they don't like and they're the ones selling it. Well, going back to what you're saying about licensing and stuff like that. Yeah, I think this is something that bizarrely I think scales better on a smaller level. Yes. So if you are making that tiny little film, relatively speaking, I don't wish to diminish it. But you know, like a small thing for hardcore fans. Actually, all this ancillary income is your business like film is the thing. But on a larger scale, it's the other way around. So I won't I can't say what film this is. But there is a horror. I've spoke to a lot of producers of various different levels for this. And one of them gave me some details about their horror film. So this is a Hollywood horror film that was budgeted between about 25 and 50 million and being deliberately vague so people can't meet overlap last sort of 510 years and the real income that they'd got a Maltese over the 10 years that they thought the film would take the the highest amount of money they got from licensing was some Video Game spent $100,000. And then after that there was a novelization they got about $80,000 clothing was about 60,000 figurines like scale figures about 45,000. And then comic books about 35. Toys. Next, then posters publishing, the calendar brought in under 10, grand, and the collectibles are under 10 grand. So that's not nothing. But that's a big movie. And that's combined, not half a million dollars for the entire movie. And obviously, that's going to be cut up by by all the other people that are involved. And so it's not that that's not money, good money, it's just that it's not good money for that film. Whereas if you can manage to get that same kind of involvement, but your core film is unbelievably cheap, and the 100,000 bucks,

Alex Ferrari 1:20:46
yeah, it's 100,000.

Steven Follows 1:20:47
The number of people you're splitting it by is tiny. And you're doing very nicely.

Alex Ferrari 1:20:53
It's all about how you position and how you set up your project and how you set up the business that you're starting to create as as a film trip earner, you have to think about it as an entrepreneurial filmmaker. So all those numbers sound fantastic, but not for a 25 million to $50 million movie, it sounds like chump change. But Exactly.

Steven Follows 1:21:11
So I did an average I got a load of movies, I can't remember how many It was about 20 odd Hollywood horror horror movies every 10 year period. And the average of them, they got about the grossed about 40 million box office internationally. That's kind of like crossing the movies 47 from home entertainment, which would be a bit less nowadays, because that was DVD and stuff like that. But television was about 35 million, but merchandising was a quarter of a million. So that's what 1% of the box office gross. And that's not nothing. But when you look at $100,000 movie, it's not going to be 1%, it's going to be a lot higher, especially if you build it with that in mind. If you say to your audience, look, I'm going to blog about this, I'm going to share this, everyone who supports me, and we'll get along this journey. Oh, one thing, I just want to remember this, this is something that someone told me a while ago, which I thought was really smart. If you're doing a crowdfunding campaign for a movie. and in this situation you would be because $100,000 for the big, small, committed audience, you don't need to go anywhere else for the money. The one thing you should never give away as a reward is the movie. Everything else but the movie, because what will happen is, as long as you're giving them good stuff that they're happy with, whether it's t shirts or experiences or behind the scenes, whatever it is, if you don't give them the movie, but you say to them a few weeks before it comes out on iTunes, hey, it's coming out in two weeks, it would mean the world to me, if you want to buy it that you buy in the opening weekend. Yeah, see, what happens is if you can get it in the top 10 of the sub genre, whatever, it will do massively more business in the in the coming week. So you're kind of gaming the algorithm, not gaming it because obviously algorithms get clever and clever. But it is it does have a big weekend on iTunes. Whereas if you given it away, you're most committed fans who've proven they'll spend money for you can't buy won't buy.

Alex Ferrari 1:23:01
I mean, it literally just happened to me with this podcast with the film shoprunner podcast. I literally just launched it a few weeks ago. And I focused all of my energies to everybody to come out and like Hey, guys, go check out my my podcast, you know, subscribe, do all you know and leave me reviews and all that stuff. And because I did that I showed up on new and noteworthy which is a top 20 new podcasts of all of my of all of iTunes for TV and film. So that elevates me to a higher level same thing would happen with the film with an with iTunes or Apple, Apple TV or whatever they're calling it now. Where if you're able to generate all those pre sales, even if you do in two months before all those pre sales count on day one. And if you're able to just run up to the top of the of the charts, then all of the people who don't know who the heck you are just looked at the top 10 and like, oh, Who's this guy? Boom, you've got more sales? So absolutely, without question.

Steven Follows 1:24:01
So there's loads more in this horror report. And, you know, it took about a year to do on are not cheap. But how many pages time 200 and something. Also I had it down as well. You know, like, I'm not known for brevity, but certainly there were bits where I was like is getting a bit long. Wow. Wow. You know, what, where's the natural point to stop? Like, once you've gone to the ages, where do you stop?

Alex Ferrari 1:24:25
There's, there's no question. And you could just keep going, like I just asked him like, Well, how about if you made posters? And what what posters are for box office and like, you could just go Yeah, you can go forever, because they're very interesting info. Very, very informative, interesting. information without question. And then also did you find that because I kind of I saw this in the report, I want you to touch on it. Did you find that horror films are consumed more on physical media than there are on s VOD, or theatrical, theatrical and physical media versus just s VOD.

Steven Follows 1:24:59
Yeah, so this is something that Bruce Nash and I found in a project we did for the American Film market. So Bruce Nash is the genius behind the numbers, which is like a rival to Box Office Mojo. And it's really good, really accurate. And Bruce is a really nice guy. And he does a lot of work in this area, he does a lot of comp analysis and stuff. So he's really switched on to the financial side of the industry. And he and I have been working together for the last three or four years doing articles every summer for the American Film market. And that's where the first time directors article came from. And we did this week, he's got all sorts of data on sales across different platforms. Obviously, he's got box office for theatrical but he's also got home At home entertainment on different formats, rental, and also iTunes and other like VUDU and things like that. So we, we thought, okay, let's, let's see what's going on there. And the every way we looked at it, every way that we crunched the numbers, we discovered that horror is doing unbelievably poorly on iTunes, and on sort of s word. And I. It's tricky, because as as always, VOD is such a black box that we just don't know. And it's so frustrating in so many different ways. But I wonder whether because it used to do so well on on VHS, but it was also a time where it was kind of forbidden, slightly, not literally banned. Obviously. There was some but you know, fundamentally, it was something that you were kind of ashamed of watching. And nowadays, it's absolutely not. And people are quite proud of horror and happy with horror and things. And I wonder how the medium is changing the audience patterns, and an example I'd give you is in a different field. But the rise of the Kindle, and the success of 50 Shades of Grey are not unconnected, because it's the WHO THE who's going to sit on a train, or a bus reading what everyone knows is a pornographic novel about a woman being slowly beaten up by a rich man. like no one's going to read that. They shouldn't read it for other reasons. It's it's a

Alex Ferrari 1:27:03
horribly poorly written and don't get me started on the Twilight,

Steven Follows 1:27:06
you know, the bad thing to the nice lady, anyway? Well, I've just bought the plot for many of you. But the thing is, if you read it on your Kindle, no one knows what you're reading, other than constantly licking your lips or whatever. But like it's, and I think that had 50 Shades of Grey come out 10 years prior to that, it wouldn't have done nearly as well. And so those things have come together, that's your forbidden thing. And I think the reverse is happening, or for horror, in the sense that getting the VHS and renting it or buying it was actually sort of a badge of honor. And it was sort of slightly under the not quite under the counter, but it was private, it was personal. And it was for you and your friends or whatever. Whereas nowadays, the way people are around horror and the way the formats have changed, and things like that horror doesn't seem to do nearly as well. I don't think people have lost their ability to be scared. I don't think people don't want to watch horror. It's just it's difficult to measure how the medium changes the message.

Alex Ferrari 1:28:03
Well, yeah, I mean, it's kind of like with porn. I mean, you know, porn was in a theater before and a lot of people didn't consume porn because they didn't want to go into a theater. And then the second it came out on VHS and home movies, and all of a sudden an explosion happened in the pornographic industry. And I think you're right, it is a reverse for horror films, and s VOD, at this point.

Steven Follows 1:28:22
Yeah, the box office figures for porn through the floor. Yeah, like, Yeah, I don't think anyone's interest in porn has waned as a society. And I think that's kind of important to remember. So I mean, but it's, it's staggering me small horror on on iTunes. And it's, it's actually if you look at it, I don't think iTunes doesn't have sort of a big horror section. It doesn't really do horror.

Alex Ferrari 1:28:46
And Amazon either Amazon doesn't. Emma has has a lot of horror films, too. But it's different. It's just yeah. And also,

Steven Follows 1:28:53
we don't know how much it is down to Apple, you know, I'm sure Apple have quite restrictive about what kinds of apps you can create. And you can't, you know, you can't legally get an app that is pornographic or too horrific, or whatever, on your iPhone, whereas I'm sure you can on Android. And also you can via a browser. And so I don't know how much of this is a subjective decision that is being influenced by sort of being pushing them down or not promoting them. I don't know how much the medium is changing it. And I don't know whether people are actually getting their horror elsewhere. And certainly, watching a horror film on a VHS was probably quite scary. Whereas now with 4k tallies, and all this sort of, I wonder whether that changes, it actually makes the theater a scarier place to watch it. I don't know I all Bruce and I could come to was the sort of we're absolutely confident that horror is doing far poorer on video on demand than it was doing on VHS and DVD. And as to why and what that means and things I don't know. And also, I don't know. I don't know how much Netflix is paying for horror, but I would imagine it's low. Because it's, it feels niche and the sense that so I'm not a massive fan of romantic comedies, I don't mind them, but I'm not a massive fan, but I'm not actively against them. Whereas there are a lot of people who are actively against horror, whether it's because they've got children or because they're nervous, or whatever it will be. So when you're buying content for Netflix, or Amazon Prime or whatever, maybe you're not thinking what do people love? You may be thinking, what do people not, hey,

Alex Ferrari 1:30:27
we'll be right back after a word from our sponsor. And now back to the show. Right and, and that's in but also now there's like shutter and a couple of other s VOD platforms that are completely dedicated to horror films because it is such a niche kind of thing. And, and why not show every single kind of horror film that you like, is gross and net gross, but as gory as you want, or as much nudity as you want. And this is what we do. So shutter is kind of like the Netflix for horror films. At this point, I've talked to so many filmmakers who are trying to get deals with with with shutter just trying to get their film on as far because they're they actually paying and they actually make money with their with their horror film. So the whole the whole landscape of s VOD is is so champion now we got Disney plus coming Apple TVs throwing their hat in the ring. You know, it's getting it's getting out of hand. There's I even have a streaming service for God's sakes. Oh, I haven't got one yet. I have to pick one up. You got to pick one. I mean, it's the coolest thing. Everyone's got one. You know, maybe

Steven Follows 1:31:38
I have got one. Maybe I didn't realize it. I should just do. But yeah, I think on the landscape, you're right, it was it was easier when there was only one or two platforms, and you could get all your movies there. But as a consumer, that's not good in the long term. You know, we want to have competing services that we that evolve and compete for our dollars, you know, that's in the big picture, that's good. Whether it will work out that way, I don't know. And certainly I don't look forward to rather than paying 999 for Netflix, I now paying 999 to 10 different companies, that doesn't interest me. But you know, cable was a lot more expensive, you know, that

Alex Ferrari 1:32:16
we're getting to that. But we are getting to that point where it's now getting almost equal because Disney plus is coming out. So I have kids I'm getting Disney plus and also they have Marvel and Star Wars and, and in all the other brands that they own everything. So that's a good, it seems like a good ROI for the money because you're gonna have access to and also they have Fox two for cut six, they own everything. So they have all of these things. Netflix is a good value. And then if you're a horror fan, you know, shutters a great value for them. But it's starting to get to the point where like, you know, I think they just closed down DC Universe. So that was a whole streaming service dedicated to just the DC Universe, which I had no idea that I

Steven Follows 1:32:55
didn't even know existed, I would have actively avoided it. But it turns out I passively avoid

Alex Ferrari 1:33:00
you passively avoided it. But the point is that that just closed down. And I'm like I don't know what that that and now Warner Brothers is coming out with their own streaming service at Paramount, I think is thinking about doing something as well universal. It's got one universals component in the in the work. So like, at a certain point, you're like, I'm not gonna pay for all this guys. You know, like, I'm just not well,

Steven Follows 1:33:20
are you though? Because the thing is that what what the interesting thing is one of the reasons that Netflix had such a poor when their earnings statement came out a week or two ago, and there was a big drop in their stock price. One of the reasons was that it looks like they're evolving from being what was effectively an essential service for many people like it was okay, you need to have this because there are movies, and they're now becoming hit driven. They need a stranger things. And that's the the HBO model, HBO needs Game of Thrones. And if you look at the unsubscribe rates, actually, someone did this. If you look at Google Trends, for the phrase, unsubscribe HBO, and correlate it with when Game of Thrones finished, we have massive, of course. So that's a more risky mission, because you're going from just needing to have content No, we're not content to needing to have particularly good content. But as a consumer, I kind of want that I want them to chase after my dollars and Amazon just announced that as well. They're going to try and be more focused and it may produce you know, lowest common denominator big movies, but it might also produce stuff that people actually want to watch.

Alex Ferrari 1:34:24
I mean, look at the movie Irishmen. Stacy's new film just came out. It's coming out soon on Netflix. I mean, it's I think Netflix is here to stay until Apple buys them. But it's it's an interesting landscape. It's gonna be very interesting moving forward as an independent filmmaker and, and getting your movies out there. And horror for sure. is going to be interesting to see how this landscape continues but it is Hoare unlike any other genre is very, very unique in the sense that it like you say it they're willing to give chances to to film More than other genres it doesn't matter about budget doesn't matter about stars they want to buy product they want to consume they want to consume the in view these things on physical media. You know, they're they're very in a small microcosm their own little world horror films and horror fans. And I mean I've been Have you ever been to a horror convention?

Steven Follows 1:35:24
No, I don't think I don't like horror films. I can't imagine I

Alex Ferrari 1:35:26
was the my first my first short film I did. A lot of people thought it was a horror film, but it was just an action film in a really creepy place. And but a lot of horror fans loved it, because it was such a creepy, you know, vibe. So I just went along with it. I'm like, Okay, cool. It's a horror film. Why not? So I would go to horror conventions, where I would, and I was introduced, and I would sell my DVD there, I would sell my wares there, I would sell my other ancillary products. And I did that a handful of times when I first starting out, and I saw what horror conventions were like, and it's, it's, they're very passionate. It's kind of like, you know, hardcore comic book fans. They're very affectionate.

Steven Follows 1:36:08
That's so funny. That's such an Alec story. Because I thought you're gonna go Yeah, I went to this convention. And the interesting being a consumer, and I'm wandering around out and you're like, yeah, I went to this convention, and I was selling things. And I had a stand and I made a course you did? Yeah, of course, I

Alex Ferrari 1:36:21
did. So I have to stay on brand, sir, I have to. So I want to ask you, I want to ask you, what's the biggest thing you learned by putting this whole report together?

Steven Follows 1:36:32
That's a good question. I think I learned that there's a lot more under the surface than people give credit for. So I think there were so many topics where I was like, Wow, there are patterns, but there are complexities to it. And I hadn't heard other people talking about them. And I'm not willing to I'm not suggesting I you know, found things no one else has. But certainly I you would have thought it would this many films being made with the internet being what it is, a lot of this stuff would already be well known, discussed and incorporated into the work. And it's absolutely not. And so I was kind of the big picture was just how filmmakers aren't really paying attention in this sort of rational, smart way to achieving what they define as their goals. And so I was kind of surprised. It almost looks to me, like, given the amount of data we already have horror film should have been figured out a lot more than they are the way that Disney seems to have figured out how to make money. They horror filmmakers don't seem to be they either don't notice or they're not caring, I can't tell.

Alex Ferrari 1:37:31
I think Well, I think filmmaker, independent filmmakers in general don't, a lot of times don't care. And I don't mean that in a bad way. I just think that's just something that's not in their mind. It's so difficult in their mind to get a movie made, let alone thinking about how to market sell it or make money with it is almost something afterthought. And they think of the art and they don't think of the business. And I think horror has a it's a it's a law, it's still a little bit of a wild, wild west, you know, out of all the genres, which is nice, because like, yeah,

Steven Follows 1:38:03
it's it's for the fans. And yeah, it's something where your interpretation is really important. It's not like Disney, where you just need your avatar, you need to be in the right place at the right time with the right money and the right history. Actually, it's a lot more open than almost any other genre.

Alex Ferrari 1:38:16
Yeah. And, and you can have a lot of fun with it. I mean, Spielberg started off his career, making horror movies, you know, with from Jaws, and then working on Poltergeist and those kinds of films, those kind of seminal films. You know, you have a lot of fun scaring people. I mean, you can really have a lot of fun. It doesn't have to be super gory, or a lot of nudity. That's one genre, but paranormal, like, you know, paranormal ghost stories, Jesus, that's scary as hell. You know, there's so many different kinds of sub genres within the Horde that you as an independent filmmaker can just have a lot a lot of fun with. And now I have to ask you this, what the heck's next for you, man? What's the next big Opus you're working on? Well, I can't, I can't talk about it, I can't talk about it. And then

Steven Follows 1:39:05
I can't, I don't know. And now I'm trying to, I'm trying to work out how it's gonna I can be useful to the film community, because I've been writing these articles every week. And I intend to keep doing it, I really enjoy it. But I feel like there's another thing that I should be doing to be helpful in some way, and I can't work out what it is. So this report when I was doing it, I thought, this might be a really interesting way I can help where it's a pay what you want model, meaning that most people won't pay or pay the minimum, which is a pound, some will pay more. And if that makes sense, economically, then I can keep doing that for different genres and things like that. It has done well but not well enough for that to be the obvious thing to do. So it's not going to be in this sort of long form. And I also wonder whether a 200 page report as a PDF is the way people want to engage with this. So I'm thinking of running some live courses and doing some other ways to allow people to engage with The information and if anyone has any suggestions or anything, please let me know. I've got an event in New York, in on the 20 somethings of October, when I find the date, it's a Saturday. It's a team, I'm teaming up with NYU and their production lab to do a one day event around independent film and stuff like that. By the time this comes out, I will know a lot more like the exact date just can't remember. And I will tell Alex, and I'm sure he'll put it in the show notes or push it out there. And if you're, if you're interested, want to hear about hearing more go onto my site, which is Steven follows comm and sign up for the mailing list or drop me a line and say, Hey, what's the latest? And yeah, if you've got any ideas for what I should do next, or whether it's a study for the blog, or whether it's a format thing, you know, do more reports, or do more live courses, talk to me about it, because I'm thinking out, I'm going to keep doing the blog, but I haven't figured out what the next big thing is. Yeah,

Alex Ferrari 1:40:58
I think Core i think coursework and workshops would be a really good way to to interact with this information, because a 200 page report is a lot to digest, but sitting down for two or three hours. And and listening to a workshop or taking a course about this kind of stuff makes a lot more sense, I think, as to why I would want to consume this stuff. Because for me to sit down and read a 200 page report is is rough for me. But I still love it.

Steven Follows 1:41:27
Yeah, no, I totally understand. I mean, as I was saying, I do a lot of stuff with we have done a lot of stuff with Chris Jones. And he wrote the gorilla filmmakers Handbook, which is this huge, like the second edition sort of Bible size. And then the third edition was Bible width, Bible depth, a bit wider and taller. And he also runs gorilla filmmakers master classes. And I said to him, once, who these different people who are reading the book, or they're the same people or what and he said, Yeah, people want to, it's a mix. People want to engage with information differently. And I totally understand that. And I thought about that. And I thought about how I've gone on courses where I could have just read about something or I bought a book or I could have googled it because I want it in a different way. And I want a different level of depth. So if you as as a as a listener listening to this thinking, you know what, that's that's exactly right. I don't want it in this form. Drop me, drop me a mail, tell me how you do want it. Because ultimately, what I'm trying to do is help filmmakers, and I'm trying to help people make their film by whatever, whatever they decide is important. You know, this, this story, this genre, this way of doing it, I don't mind, but I want to support that. But I, I'm still working out how to get it out of my head into theirs. And

Alex Ferrari 1:42:40
Now I have a few questions. I asked all of my film entrepreneur guests, what advice would you give a film to produce starting a project?

Steven Follows 1:42:50
I think know why you're doing it. So you can make films for all sorts of different reasons. And I think, amongst the top reasons to be making it for fun, you're making it for experience, you're making it for exposure, you're making it for money. Or there's something else that you just you know, there's you making it for the art, let's say, of those five reasons, each of them have different next steps, and they have wildly different endpoints. And I think you have to know why you're making it. Because then if you're offered a load of money to do something you don't want to do, you'll know whether to take the money or not. Or you know, what your expectation should be and how you should pitch it to collaborators and investors and whoever. So I think know why you're doing it really sit down and think about it and work out what the number one priority is. Because I think you can probably achieve that. But only if you know what it is and you're willing to put it ahead of other goals.

Alex Ferrari 1:43:42
Now, what is the biggest lesson you've learned from building your company, your own company, your own businesses?

Steven Follows 1:43:49
You can't do anything by yourself, or you can but it's exhausting and hard to do. Tell me about anything? Yeah, I know you need a team. And, and I am very, very lucky that my I used to have a company that I ran by myself and I now co run it with a business partner. And honestly, we wish there were three of us as a trio, because it would be that, you know, they had in particular that third person had experiences we don't that would be great. And I think that learning, learning to delegate, learning to be vulnerable and open it up and also to attract interesting people who you think can add something new. It's, it's not a natural skill, because you presumably have started to do everything yourself because you can't find somebody else, which means you end up producing your own movies, even though you want to direct star, right, whatever. And you've got to learn to let go of some of that control and allow other people do it badly, maybe but badly, but not as well as you would, because that allows you to focus on other things. And I think that's a really hard lesson to learn. And if you can do it, you can achieve so much more, have more fun and also it's nice to be with other people. And especially when the world doesn't understand what you're doing, and your parents don't understand what you're doing. Your partners have a business plan. It goes, Yeah, no, I know. I know, that failed. But it was still very good, wasn't it? And you're like, God, thank you.

Alex Ferrari 1:45:05
You get me. Yes. cellmates. I love it. That's a great, that's great. Now, what did you learn from your biggest business failure?

Steven Follows 1:45:22
What worries me is I haven't learned it, whatever it is. I think that in our industry, there is a massive amount of delusion that needs to go on. And in a good way, I mean, maybe I should find a different word other than delusion, but you know, self belief or, or not listening to the facts. And that is great. And that should carry on. However, there are some realities that you know, are going to happen, you know, you know, you've got that invoice and to pay in three weeks is and you've got no income, face up to it now, you know, talk to people go to that person and say, Look, I know it's not due yet, but I don't have the money. What can we do? How can I figure it out? rather than waiting and putting your head in the sand? And I think those two things, believing in yourself and also facing up to reality, feel like they run completely counter, but I don't think they actually do if you managed to get them done, right. And I think about being honest, and trying to face up to this inevitable thing. Or at least, maybe it's not inevitable, but it's likely actually dealing with it now is usually much better than dealing with it later. If you go to someone who's expecting, I mean, like, if you're expect if you're owed some money, and way before it's overdue, the person comes to you and says, Look, I know you're going to hate me for this, but I'm struggling. Can you give me a bit of leeway? Or can I pay you in installments? You're not gonna like it, but you're going to be much more up for it. Whereas if you're expecting a big payment on Thursday, and Thursday comes and nothing happens. And then Friday hams, nothing happens Monday, nothing happens. You're already angry. And then they go oh, yeah, by the way, I don't have the money. You've your expectations has completely changed. So I think, acknowledging when these bad things, which sometimes happen are inevitable and facing up to them sooner rather than just ignoring them. They never go away.

Alex Ferrari 1:47:03
Never, never, never. Now, in your opinion, what is the definition of a film? shoprunner? Well, I mean, if we're being pedantic about this, it's not a real world. It is. It is a real word, sir. I i've trademarked and coined it, sir. So yes,

Steven Follows 1:47:20
Yes. You can't trademark a word. That's not how words work you can verify? proves you.

Alex Ferrari 1:47:31
Okay, an entrepreneurial filmmaker, sir. What is the definition of an archer video filmmaker, you son of

Steven Follows 1:47:41
Okay, all jokes aside, I genuinely think that there's real value in realizing that you're an artist in a business world, or at least that there's compromises to be made between them. And producers of all the jobs are the ones that have to sit with one foot in art and one foot in commerce. And if you as a independent filmmaker, or as someone who is producing your own film content, if you don't have a producer that will do all that for you, and let you be a sheltered artist, which by the way no one has, then you've got to fess up to some of it in the same way that you know how to pay taxes or know how to pay your rent, or you know how the washing machine works. Because not because you want to but because the alternative is pretty crappy, and you're not protecting yourself. So I think even if you feel like business isn't what you choose to do, you are stepping up and saying, Yeah, I get that this is something that's necessary. So I think it's about maturity. I think it's about seriousness. And I think it's about protecting the artist inside you to actually live in continue to make a long term career in something you love, rather than trying to ignore things and do it once and burn it. So yeah, I think it's, it's a real admirable place for an artist and filmmaker to be to realize, you know what, this is something that's important to the world and important to the longevity of what I want to do.

Alex Ferrari 1:48:57
That's awesome. Now, Steven, this has been an epic, epic conversation as we both knew it would be. We're an hour and 45 minutes in already, I think. I can't believe it's so short. I know. I know. We keep talking forever. You're one of those guests that I could just sit down and we just like, honestly, like the first 30 minutes, I didn't ask one question. It was all just literally like, I have a list of questions. I was gonna ask that one question was asked I think in the first 30 minutes of our conversation, because we were just riffing so we should do a podcast together like you know, the Steven and Alec show.

Steven Follows 1:49:31
What you if you want to if you want that write in email, Alex, not me. The one that would do all the marketing anyway. Yeah, right in let's let's get that going.

Alex Ferrari 1:49:43
Stephen, man, thank you, again, so much for being so straightforward. And for all the great work you're doing for the film community, man, I really appreciate it. And thanks for dropping the knowledge bombs on the tribe today.

Steven Follows 1:49:53
Oh, it's my pleasure. And thank you so much for all the work you do and also inviting me on because this is something that I'm really passionate about talking about, and it's really Nice to know that through you, I can reach all sorts of other filmmakers who be able to use these insights and findings for on their own films. That's really exciting. That's why I do what I do.

Alex Ferrari 1:50:09
Thank you, brother.

Steven Follows 1:50:10
All the best. Bye! Bye!

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BPS 047: What Makes a Great Screenplay with Stephen Follows

What if someone could read over 12,000 scripts that were read by professional script readers, who gave the scripts an overall score as well as scores for specific factors including plot, dialogue, characterization, theme, and voice. Then looked for connections and correlations to discover what professional script readers think a good screenplay looks like. Well, today on the show I have that man, Stephen Follows.
It’s a monster of a report — 65 pages to be exact — that examines data from over 12,000 screenplays – mostly written by amateurs, but some of them written by professionals and major Hollywood actors.  Using rigorous data analysis methodologies, Stephen and his team found some fascinating correlations.
Click here to read the report: Judging Screenplays By Their Coverage Report

What They Found

Here’s just a taste of this amazing report. Later sections go into more detail and more topics, but below are nine tips screenwriters should take on board to help improve their chances of impressing script readers.

  1. Know thy genre. Your priorities should rest on the particular nature of your chosen genre. For example, Family films place the highest premium on catharsis, while for Action films it’s plot.
  2. Some stories work better than others. The vast majority of scripts can be summarized using just six basic emotional plot arcs – and some perform better than others.
  3. If you’re happy and you know it, redraft your script. Film is about conflict and drama and for almost all genres, the happier the scripts were, the worse they performed. The one notable exception was comedy, where the reverse is true.
  4. Swearing is big and it is clever. There is a positive correlation between the level of swearing in a script and how well it scored, for all but the sweariest screenplays.
  5. It’s not about length, it’s what you do with it. The exact length doesn’t matter too much, so long as your script is between 90 and 130 pages. Outside of those approximate boundaries scores drop precipitously.
  6. Don’t rush your script for a competition. The closer to the deadline a script was finished, the worse it performed.
  7. Use flashbacks responsibly. Scripts with more than fifteen flashbacks perform worse than those with few to no flashbacks.
  8. VO is A-OK. Some in the industry believe that frequent use of voiceover is an indicator of a bad movie, however, we found no such correlation. We suggest that any complaints on the topic should be sent to editors, rather than writers.
  9. Don’t worry if you’re underrepresented within your genre – it’s your superpower. Female writers outperform male writers in male-dominated genres (such as Action) and the reverse is true in female-dominated genres (such as Family).
Stephen Follows is an established data researcher in the film industry whose work has been featured in the New York Times, The Times, The Telegraph, The Guardian, The Daily Mail, The Mirror, The Evening Standard, Newsweek, The New Statesman, AV Club, and Indiewire.

He acted as an industry consultant and guest on the BBC Radio 4 series The Business of Film, which was topped the iTunes podcast chart, and has consulted for a wide variety of clients, including the Smithsonian in Washington.

I just love Stephen and his amazing ability to crunch numbers for the benefit of the filmmaking community. He’s truly doing God’s work. Get ready to go down the rabbit hole and see what makes a great screenplay.

Enjoy my conversation with Stephen Follows.

Right-click here to download the MP3

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Alex Ferrari 0:00
I like to welcome to the show Steven follows man thank you so much from your busy insane schedule sir to come on the show and and share your knowledge bombs with the tribe today.

Steven Follows 4:35
Hey, my pleasure. I'm really delighted to be here and it's really nice to connect up and hopefully, you know help your audience as much as the work you're doing already helps them

Alex Ferrari 4:44
Absolutely man. I mean, oh before we get started, I have to tell everybody in the tribe that you I am a huge fan of what you do. Steven is easily the best like film researcher film data. Guy on the planet without question, the stuff that he does is absolutely insane. And we're going to talk about one of those insane projects in this episode without question. But we were just talking about,

Steven Follows 5:12
It helps that there aren't many of us right there. So you don't have to do well in a small category. Yeah.

Alex Ferrari 5:19
But the point is the work that you do, which is, you know, obscene amounts of data crunching for the film industry, and then you put that kind of information out, you don't hide it behind, you know, $1,000 paywall you give it away, or give it you know, or you know, pay as you go, or whatever it is, you really are trying to help the community. So I'm excited to talk about your latest project. And we're also going to talk about some of your past projects as well. But before we get into it, why? Like, I what point did, what did you have like data, like charts on your wall? When you were a child? How did this? How did you become the the world like the film data guy, and what made you want to get into this side of the business? And I know you have other you know, you are in other parts of your business. But first of all, how did you get into the business and then we'll talk about your film data stuff?

Steven Follows 6:10
Well, I've always been into film, as a kid, that's been always my thing, that's always the medium, the power of it, and you know, everything from your, you know, the temple, you know, popcorn blockbusters love them, and right down to sort of right down right across to kind of really heartfelt indie films that make you think and cry, and, you know, that's always been my thing. So film is always been there as a constant. And then I used to write a little bit as a kid, but mostly I was wanting to be a producer. And I went to film school, and I was in a class of like, 100 people, and everyone wanted to be a director, or, you know, a camera person, and I just, I wanted to produce, so I just produced and produced loads and loads of terrible short films, and just, you know, producing was my thing, I can organize stuff. And I like to bring things to, to reality. And I also like working with other people. So it's, I never want to go away and just do so by myself. I kinda like the idea of a team and what that makes, and then sort of a production company and working away at that writing and producing stuff. And my business partner, Ed is a director at a really good one at that. And so we sort of built a company that was a video company, and now focuses on storytelling. So we still make videos, we do TV commercials, we, all our stuff is for charities in the third sector. And so that that kind of that part of my life is that sort of 15 year journey, which was always driven about, you know, wanting to get films made and wanting to move people. And then with the charity thing, wanting to do it for the good guys and get people to change maybe. And then on the side of all of that is that I, when I was before I went to college, I had to decide, did I want to study film, and then do the kind of academic intellectual stuff that I enjoyed on the side or the other way around? Did I want to go and study, I don't know, politics or economics, and then do film on the side. And I decided that it was more interesting to study film, and to keep the intellectual stuff as a hobby, and not try and do it as something useful. And you know, it's just curiosity, you know, this more than anything else. It's not, it's just about wanting to understand how the world works. And so then I did that, and I sort of made that commitment to myself, you know, what, I will make sure that I do some stuff that uses my brain, you know, my running a production company definitely uses many parts of who I am. But the creativity, and people skills and things like that none of its using the just the logical part, you notice, there's so many more things going on. And so I sort of used to do little projects and stuff. And I quite often if I had a debate with a friend in the pub about film, they'll be like, oh, yeah, there are more comedies. And I'd say, I don't know, I don't think so or whatever. And I got I was the one that would go home and try and find out not to win the argument, because it's frustrating to have people in the future just chatting to each other without the information. And if they knew they could do that far better for their audience for themselves for their projects. And the the industry is not very good at sharing that information. So it was always a hobby, and I just started putting it on the blog, because I felt that it was a good place to do it. And why not share it? You know, there's two cool things about this one is discovering something and going oh, my God, look how cool that is. The second half is just as interesting, which is, hey, guys, come look at this, you know, because then people go off and use it in a way you never thought. And then they come back. And they're like, oh, that thing you show me. I used it like this. And you're like, Oh, that's really cool. You know, so sharing the information has been as essential as doing it for me all along. And yeah, so then I started the blog, and then somebody told me that it was good to try and have some structure to it. So I decided to publish every Monday, I just, you know, one of those things where when you have loads of different things in your life that are all different shapes. It's very hard to work out what to do today. And so by having these self imposed deadlines, it really helped and I just kept looking for stuff and the more I look for something and the more I find something else to think of and things build on other things and you know sometimes I'll someone will tell me about a cool technique like I was a couple of years ago someone told me about this API where you could send it a picture of a human face, and it will tell you all the emotions in it. And I'm like, Oh, cool. I wonder if it worked with the posters. And I sent a few movie posters, and it worked. And then I'm like, wow, I could send all movie posters. And so you

Alex Ferrari 10:14
No, you see, that's, that's where this is where you are different than most human beings. One or two. That's kind of cute. But then you go straight to all movie posters.

Steven Follows 10:23
What are the steps? I'm missing in the middle? Because the thing is, the hard things are, you know, conceiving in there, and then building it, but then to like, it's like building a whole printers and printing one magazine, like, what? Like one copy? No, no, no, no, do a print run for everyone. And so and then once you have all this data, what's really fun is that you tend to get really clear patterns and stories. And you say, I always knew that, or I knew that as a film fan. But now I've got the proof, or actually, everything in the industry says about x is just wrong, it just doesn't work like that. And the people at the very top or the people who have been in for a very long time, they know this, but they let everyone else think the other thing because it makes it easier for them or whatever. And so it's really nice to come back and go, Hey, no, guys, this is something that you can do to help the work you're doing. You know, and I think this is awesome. Like, that's really a fun thing to do, because people are going off and using it. Like if someone's going to make a movie, and they're gonna make it like this. But I know that that at that choice they've made is not going to be great for their success, if I can nip in and help them and give them a little bit of advice. They're still doing all the hard work, but then their film will be, you know, much more successful or whatever it will be. I feel like if you can do that you kind of got it. You don't it's not really a choice. It's kind of I got a small part I can play along the journey and I if I don't then I'm being a bit lazy and not really playing my part to the community. You know,

Alex Ferrari 11:44
That's it. Yeah, it again, like we've said off air it's like, that's just so not in my wheelhouse. I'm so impressed with that mentality. And how the mind your mind works. And and you were telling me like I'm marketing I'm like, well, that's me. I could do that. That's my that's in my wheelhouse without question, but your work is is doing an insane amount of good for for a lot of filmmakers and a lot of people in the business and your latest project, which I'm going to read the cover which one it was approached when I was approached by the to about this, I my mouth dropped. I couldn't believe that someone did this. But then I saw your name on and I was like Well of course it makes perfect sense. Only a psychopath would do this and like all it seemed it follows Okay, that's perfectly makes perfect sense. The the new report is called judging screenplays by their coverage, you analyze 12,000 Plus unproduced feature films, screenplays and the scores they received and revealed. And this is reveals what professional script readers think make a good screenplay. And that's what this entire report is about. And it gives you a real like this is a this is an interesting report, because it's about 12,000 unproduced feature films not produced feature films. So please tell me how this came to be. And and how did you go about putting this together? And then we'll get into some of the nitty gritty of the report?

Steven Follows 13:14
Yeah, that sounds great. I mean, there is this is not the main reason I do it. But there is a real side by side pleasure in doing something that it's like, it's like a magician, where they spend years training how to do this thing. And then they got all this equipment and a team. And then they go, oh, yeah, like this. And it's like, magic. And as any screenwriter will tell you, nothing is magic. It's just hard work. You know, like you watch Ocean's 11. And like, how did they get out of that situation? You like? Well, the screenwriter writers worked on it for like a year, and then made it look easy. So yeah. So what happened here was I was talking over a year ago, with the guys at Screencraft. And they manage all sorts of competitions and things like that. And they have really good guys that really interested in helping screenwriters is one of those businesses. That's a proper business that's come out of wanting to support screenwriters. And I can I can tell theater in the sense that I talked to lots of people and a lot of people suggest things and you can tell which people are just saying, Hey, can we just get some value out of this, whatever. And then there are other people who really want to sort of say, Yeah, but how does this help writers. And so we were chatting, and both of us had seen years ago, there was an infographic that was still doing the rounds, like it's a big one page infographic. And it was from one particular script reader who had kept loads of notes of all the scripts I've ever read. And they and there was an interesting things like what country or what state the characters were from, or whatever. But then on the right hand side was this list that was about why they thought the scripts were bad or why they were held back, you know, it wasn't didn't have a strong protagonist didn't have a strong plot, and they'd rank them based on how many times that came up. And John Screencraft and I were both independently saying to each other code, there's that thing I saw years ago, that was really cool. And I was like, Can we do that at scale? You know, can we we can't find the exact things like that, you know, like protagonist is a bit weak in the third act, because that is nuanced that the data would struggle to really understand. But there is loads of stuff we can do. So we spend some time talking about, okay, but how do we do this? Like, in this modern world of privacy, how do we do this without it being a problem, we don't want to be taking people's private work and doing all sorts of things with it. And, and so that was that was back a little bit to figure out how we do this without causing any problems. We don't want to be the next, like Facebook or whatever. But at the same time, I think we can help screenwriters. And so in the end, we worked out a kind of complicated but good system that anonymized all the data, or the scores that they read is gone, but still allowed us to have a look on that. So it's not it wasn't a case of us sitting there reading every script and all that kind of stuff. It was more turning into data. And as I said, there's scores, what they get from readers was not just the overall score, but also all sorts of things like catharsis plot structure, you know, voice things like that, taking all of those anonymizing them, but still being able to sort of link data points. And then Okay, great. So we got over that hurdle, then it took longer than I thought it was going to on a data science point of view. Shocking, so much information. Shocking. Yeah. Well, it's just, you know, and also, it's one of those things where you start and you think, okay, I'll just do ABC, and then you're doing that you're like, oh, look, D exists. Oh, yeah, he exists F, G. And then you know, so it really was a discovery thing, where as soon as we cracked, cracked one thing, we discovered two more things. And in the end, we had to go, okay, you know, there's some things we put to one side and said, you know, what, I'm not going to do anything on this. Because we can do this in the future. And it's just too much now. And we should say, why keep saying we. So I let the I let the process and I certainly something that John screenhouse. And I set up but also, there was a two great people that really helped me Josh Cockcroft. And Laura mentioned, were both of them really helped me with the coding and the thought process and the writing it up. And, you know, it was a team effort. And so yeah, we there's a few things we left on the table. But then we left, we ended up with this 50 page report that looks. I mean, it looks at three different things. Fundamentally, the main thing is it looks at what script professional script readers think of good script looks like. And we can talk more about what it is in a bit. So that's the main that's the main purpose the report. But then the next bit was about well, what is the average screenplay look like? You know, like, what, what's normal, not even good or bad, but like, how many characters scenes pages dialogue locations. And then finally, there's little bits we could do about screenwriters. Again, we don't know, like, individually there, who they are or how old they are in like that. But there are some things we can figure out with gender and genre and which bits of software they use as well because you know which program do you write with? And stuff like that? So that's the bits that we decided to lend into your you may be telling me Do you think it's long? I think it's short.

Alex Ferrari 17:59
Psychotic. You're psychotic. That's it. And that's fine. Fine. Thank you. No, no, but you're psychotic in a wonderful way, sir. In a wonderful, wonderful way. I just as you're talking, I just realize what who you are you are your money balling screenwriting?

Steven Follows 18:15
Yeah, it's so funny, because that's come up a few times. And we thought about like, Okay, do we lean into that? Or do you know that and ultimately, I think the really important thing to remember with this is that we are judging what's what script readers think a good script is, we're not saying what audiences do, we're not saying rate work, what we're doing. And we're also not there's no formula for it, you know, the more data I get into the more I appreciate the value and importance of human creativity and ingenuity. And so it's not like I can just generate a script now. So you're absolutely right. But I have a very narrow thing. You know, this is the gatekeepers, you know, as you know, the people who get you in the room, you know, the get you place you win a competition or whatever, will give you validation to show what you can do. That's what we're focusing on this really narrow gatekeeper role.

Alex Ferrari 19:01
Right, exactly. So I mean, the difference between Moneyball is they were literally just looking at it stats. So that was a different thing. There was no creativity in involved. But this is a money balling of script readers and what will get what betters your chance of getting a screenplay through the gatekeeper, which is a massive Head Start above everybody else. If you don't, if you know this information, you've just changed your odds of writing something or creating something with your creativity and with your skill and your craft to actually be able to break through the door much faster and get more attention quicker, just based on this on this research. And as I'm skimming through that the report, I just came across like what matters most to script readers, and on the most important side, it is characterization, plot, style, the voice of the Have the writer. And then the things that matter the least theme hook originality format, which is opposite of what a lot of people talk about a lot of people talk about, oh, it has to be completely original Oh, it has to have be perfect format. You've got to have a good hook in the themes got to be really great structures down there as well. But they really care about characters. They care about plot, and they care about style and the voice. So it's more of the almost less of this, the the technical and more of the creative is what they're looking for, at least from just looking at it at a quick glance.

Steven Follows 20:38
No, no, I think you're absolutely right. And I think the important thing is to sum this up with is that if you get the technical stuff wrong, you can fail, but you can't win without the other stuff. So it's almost like the reason that you do the technical stuff is so that you don't get you know, so that you don't get thrown out. So the foundation, you're going to exactly as the foundation, exactly, that's a great way of putting it. But if you're going to excel, if you're really going to make something incredible, then your voice as a writer, is the most important thing that people are after. And it's fascinating to see this in the data because I see this in other places as well. When you look at what movies successful and things like that, it's you can't say that this is always the case in every place, but being good or working hard, come out very, very often as the amongst the number one things, and here is a writer, it's not about tricking them with a clever line, or like a good title or like it's formatted, you know, are beautifully it's or, you know, or that it's so different just for the sake of being different. What we can see here is what matters is can you write something, can you can you do have a voice? Do you have an authenticity, you know, the idea of writing a really good spec script in Hollywood to get yourself noticed, they're not going to pick up your script, they're not going to make it. But the fact that you could write it or a certain voice is what will open doors. And you see the same thing here. And because these are all spec scripts, you can see actually, yeah, this is what you should be doing. Don't worry too much about how viable it actually is to be made tomorrow, you know, don't spend forever just focusing on the formatting. It's not to say it's not something but fundamentally, who are you? What have you got to say, you know, how would you describe these events? Not what are these events, you know, and that's what these people want. And I love that because I think and I hope that's what writers want to do. They want to see the world. Think about it and express it. And I find that really pleasing and reassuring that that's what the script readers are after to

Alex Ferrari 22:26
If you if you take a list of the top 20 screenwriters who have worked in Hollywood, dead or alive, but let's say alive, I'm going to say that all of them have a very unique voice, you know, the Sorkin's the Shane Black's the Kaufman's, you know, these kind of note, Christopher Nolan, these guys have very specific styles, and have a very unique voice. Sure, there's always going to be technicians always going to be craftsmen who could just get in there and knock out a script. Be kind of, you know, straight down the middle. But the ones that stand out the ones that really, really that that we know the name of the writers off the top, like I say Sorkin everybody should know who Sorkin is. Everyone should know who Kaufman is, or black. You know, these are, these are screenwriters whose style is so significant Tarantino so significant that their last name is enough to to, you know, create that. And I think people forget about the voice because they're always so caught up with trying to do something that's going to impress or what's hot now or all this kind of stuff. And this, this obviously proves. There's one thing that I find interesting, who's going to talk about genre next is that a lot of things oh, what's hot and what's not hot, there's certain things that just stay hot, and certain things that just don't stay hot for a long time. And and they stay consistent over time. Just sure they'll have little peaks and valleys of horrors really hot right now, or this is really hot right now. But do you agree with that?

Steven Follows 24:04
Yeah, totally. And I couldn't agree more. I think you're absolutely right. What's interesting is that, because we are film fans, you know, we're cinephiles, we go and see movies. And then we are film professionals. We sometimes overthink the film professional side of things and ignore the film fans side of these things, you know. And so sometimes you go through this big data process, you write it all up, and then you're like, oh, yeah, I kind of knew that. But that's okay. Because you've got validation. And but I'll give you an example. You know, you're talking about genre. With all of those things that we talked about, we correlated the success of the overall script based on their scores, all these things, which exactly as you said, says, basically, the shorthand of this is how important each of these things and like you said, formatting comes out, as the least important across all genres. It's still it's not it is not irrelevant. But it's just not the most important thing. But what is the most important thing changes depending on different genres? So the ones you talked about the characterization voice, then the number one for most of the genre But then if you think about a family film, right, so the most single most important thing for a family film is catharsis. Yes. Which makes perfect sense. As a film fan, you know, I'm not sure I would have sit there and guessed if I was, before we did this work, I would have written it like this. But now I see it. I'm like, of course, because you need a family film to be safe, you need it to be something you can put the kids in front of that you can watch. And you need the journey to and and it needs to end satisfactory, you know, I'll give you an example. So there's a viral video from like, I don't know, five, six years ago. And what it is, is Toy Story three had just come out on DVD and blu ray. And for a Christmas prank, a family had taken it to two kids had taken it and cut out the bit. So that card, the very ending so that what happens is the move that they're all going into the incinerator, they're all about to die, they say their goodbyes, and then the credits roll, right. And they showed it to them that their mom, right, and they had a hidden camera. And she's watching it like a big fan of Toy Story seemed once he watches three, she thinks they're all going to their death, and then the credits roll. And then she's like, What? What, and she looks like she's devastated. Like, not just sad, but like her world has fallen apart. And like it goes on. It's very funny. And then they own half. And they tell you what they did. But But what's so funny about that, is it saying the same thing as this data, which is, you don't expect a family film to leave you hanging, it has to close up. But you think about a thriller, or a good drama, like a really good drama. Maybe the characters have a resolution, maybe they don't, but the themes never resolved really, because you these are questions about what it is to be a human being. And so it makes sense that, you know, you wouldn't necessarily use this data to go and craft the perfect plot for a family film. But if you've written the first few drafts, and you're like, Okay, how can I improve this? You go? Okay, well, is my catharsis, you know, how cathartic is this? How much does it actually close at the end of the journey? And whereas if you're doing some other genres, it becomes far less important adventure films, it becomes less important in that sense,

Alex Ferrari 26:59
Right! Like, if you look so interesting, no, no, like, you look if you if you look, if you listen to or you watch free, Willie. Like, if if Willie doesn't get free at the end of that movie, they don't have four other movies know,

Steven Follows 27:15
Exactly, if the closure, you know, and catharsis and closure is slightly different things, but they're in the same wheelhouse. And it makes such sense

Alex Ferrari 27:23
For family film, but you don't need that for a horror movie, I mean, that the killer could get away and then that sequels. It's just different by genre, but based on on the report, the advice per genre, which I find a little fascinating, but once you start thinking about it makes perfect sense. The genres that are scored the highest, I'm just gonna do the top three in the top and the top bottom three, the top is thriller, then goes animated goes adventure, which makes perfect sense because those films kind of cross over tastes, meaning that almost everybody can enjoy a good thriller. Almost anybody can enjoy a good adventure film. Almost anybody can enjoy a good animated film because you know what you're expecting with that. But then, on the other end of the spectrum, you've got comedy is the worst reviewed fantasy and sci fi. So then if you start thinking about like, well, comedy, not everyone's going to get certain jokes. And then if you don't like it, if you don't like fantasy, it's probably just it's a riskier. It's a riskier genre. Same thing for sci fi. If you're not a sci fi or fantasy fan, not everyone's going to enjoy it. Everyone's going to generally enjoy a really good thriller, or a really good adventure film, like Raiders of the Lost Ark. Almost anybody could enjoy Raiders of the Lost Ark. You know, you don't have to be a fan of archaeology. Yeah. But you have to be a fan a fan of Lord of the Rings to enjoy Lord of the Rings.

Steven Follows 28:51
I couldn't I totally agree. And I think there are other things as well, when you when you think about like comedy is the only genre where you can really fail at like, oh, no, if you've got a horror film, and it's not very scary, it's still a horror film. It's just a bad one, or a draw. Everything is drama, like us talking is drama. It's not very dramatic, but it's drama. But if we don't make jokes, it's not a comedy. And so the answer can be no. And then for fantasy and sci fi, my theory on this one, which is just my theory of the same data that you've got in front of you, but my theory is that if you get some of the details wrong in a fantasy or sci fi when you're writing the script, it's confusing. And humans don't mind mystery mystery is intriguing, but confusion is feels horrible. Yes, when something's confusing, it's genuinely painful in an emotional sense. Whereas a thriller if it's confusing, it doesn't matter as much because it's about the unknown fantasy like you want to know the world. You know. I saw fantastic beasts, too. Not long ago. I won't spoil anything about JK Rowling's

Alex Ferrari 29:51
And I've never heard of her she good.

Steven Follows 29:55
I think she's amazing but in this film is a bit confusing, but the my main point with is that every now and then there's a situation that the characters are in. And then it turns out, there's a magic way of getting them out, like literally magic. And that's fine. But it's a bit of, it's a bit of a frustration as an audience, because you, you feel disempowered to be able to figure out what's going on, because she can't explain the volume of stuff that she knows about that world. And so when you get a fantasy or sci fi wrong, you're not explaining enough for the audience. And so the ones that are bad tend to be quite bad, you know, I'm not very good sci fi, not very good fancy, I'm not very good comedy, actually feel pretty shitty, whereas a not very good thriller, still a thriller. So my guess is that this is about whether you can fail at genre or leave people completely confused, or when you actually can just make them think it's average and fine. But yeah, who knows? We know one of the things we can't tell here is that we there, there is no and we certainly don't have access to any objective measure of quality. So it could well be that over these 12,000 scripts that maybe the comedies were bad, you know, and maybe that or maybe the script readers were biased. I mean, I don't know I don't think so.

Alex Ferrari 31:01
It is just comedy is extremely difficult. It's, it's probably one of the most difficult things to write to direct to, to make a movie of, because I still remember airplane, when that was the worst test screening ever, in Paramount's history, the worst test reading, ever. And the reason why they went back and analyzed why because it was obviously a classic and one of the biggest hits Paramount ever had at the time. And I could still watch it. Now I'm pissed myself, because it's one of the best companies ever. But don't get me started. Because all the lines are starting to come back in my, in my head, I don't want to cut down the airplane road. But they figured that people at that time in history, did not feel comfortable enough to admit that they liked it. So when they wrote it down on the cards, they just wrote down bad reviews because they didn't want to say I really liked this low brow slapstick stuff. And that was fascinating to me.

Steven Follows 32:00
Yeah, that's the same. It's the same with horror, like horror has always been a genre where in the 80s, and 90s people denied it. They're like Fangoria magazine in the UK aimed at fantasy and horror. They used to have a column that was entitled something like it's not a horror, but all of that. And it was people promote movies that were like, it's not a horror. It's like a dark psychological thriller. And people will basically use all of these words to say it's not hard. And then that generation that grew up on those horror films actually grew up into positions of power. And when No, I like horror, and horror kind of exploded, and then people's became less ashamed of liking horror. But horror has the least connection when it comes to horror movies, the least connection between what critics and audiences say they think about it, and whether they make money or not, you know, if you want to make a lot of money with the drama and documentary, they need to be good by both audience and critic standards. With horror, it's relevant, you know, the purge has made so much money. No, officially, no one likes it. You know, it's got terrible audience reviews, terrible news predicts reviews, and it does just fine. And there are other horror films that are like, Oh, this is a work of art, and they just don't make very much money. And it's not that they have to be bad, it's that they're disconnected. So you're right, there's this everything we're looking at is a lens, or a lens or a lens. And if the lenses tell me what you think, well, then suddenly I'm thinking, well, who are you? How do I want to be seen, you know, whereas when you've got things like, these are anonymous, screwed reports in the sense that you no one's gonna know who wrote them, you can actually say what you think you're not having to stand up there and defend it. You know, or if you're a critic, you're thinking, what do people think of me? What do they think they will my name my photos next to this, you know, like, I don't like this schlocky horror. Of course, I like the really important foreign film or whatever. But when you look at what people pay to see or what they rent or whatever, you see a different story.

Alex Ferrari 33:47
Yeah, when you when Silence of the Lambs won, the Oscar was in nominated, and that during that time, it is still the first and only horror movie to ever win the Oscar, to my knowledge, at least.

Steven Follows 34:00
Because because they told everyone it wasn't a horror. It was a thriller. That's how you got away with it was

Alex Ferrari 34:03
It was a psychological thriller. You never once heard anyone call it a horror film, ever. But but when you watch it, it's an effin horrific. Terrifying, it is terrifying. And by the way, do you know the Hannibal Lecter is on screen for like 12 minutes? Really? In the entire movie like 12 to 15 minutes it but all you can remember is him? In that movie, yeah. It's fascinating. Now, one of the this is this is another bit of data that I just everyone always asks about, what is the key amount of pages? What's the number? What is the sweet spot for page count? Because, I mean, we've all we've all seen the 200 page script written by a first timer saying this is so good that Hollywood's gonna take notice professionals were going to go look at him and go, Look, dude, it's just not going to work out for you, you need to stop.

Steven Follows 35:07
Well, it's like that joke of a producer picking up a long script and going I don't like it. It feels expensive.

Alex Ferrari 35:14
Exactly. It does. It's, it doesn't make financial sense. Even George Lucas had to break up Star Wars into three movies, because his first script was like 258. But I found, I'm looking at the numbers right now. Of what it's it's kind of where I was a couple surprises, though. I didn't, because normally, I always thought it was like 90 to 95 was a good sweet spot. But it seems to be 95 to 99 is a good sweet spot. But then it jumps right to 105 to 109 and 110 to 114. Yeah,

Steven Follows 35:49
I wouldn't worry about that, you know, on any chart, there's going to be a little bumpiness, you know, and so 95 to 99 seems to be ever, you know, marginally higher than 100 204. But I wouldn't worry about those kind of details. Because that is that's not, you know, significant in a data sense. But what is significant is on either end, you know, under about 85 pages, yeah, over about 130. And it falls off a cliff. And what, there is a pleasing bell curve around here, and like you said, 95 to 115 is about the highest. But ultimately, the biggest piece of news from this is, as long as it's not too long or too short, doesn't matter.

Alex Ferrari 36:27
You're right. So they're very close to very close,

Steven Follows 36:31
Very close. And it is certainly not enough like that you should go and add in a couple of pages, and it will make a big difference. It depends what's on those pages, right? I think as short as you can be to get your get your whole thing across. But also, once you start crossing below 90 pages, it's not really it's less than less like a feature film, you know, right? And less than the edit and stuff. And we found that in a few different things where I had exactly the same as you, when I started this, I was like, right, I got some stuff I want to test, you know, talking about how I started doing all of this data stuff in the first place. I'm thinking right, I want to test whether there is a sweet spot for pages. And I also want to test if VoiceOver is a good or bad thing. Because my theory has always been well, the theory I was educated on really, you know, was the voiceover is a bad thing when it comes right. I was my next thing. Yeah, yeah, exactly. Like it's it's novels, right? It's a literary format. It's a way where you say what the character is thinking internally. But that's not how movies work movies a show, don't tell. So I'm thinking great, we'll be able to test that we'll be able to see if voiceover does home movies, because the argument against VoiceOver is that's a literary thing. It's internal monologue. You should show this stuff if you have to say the character things you know a voiceover I was feeling sad at this point, then you're not doing a good job writing. The counter argument is usually just Goodfellas

Alex Ferrari 37:52
Oh no, I'll throw out throw one even better Shawshank. That's a great example. It's a great movie. It's still my top two movies ever is it's like one of the greatest and it's wall to wall. Voiceover And Goodfellas is to Goodfellas is also an AMAZING film. But Shawshank really you know because it's considered arguably one of the best movies ever made. At least by IMDb at least by IMDb ratings.

Steven Follows 38:19
Yeah, and by the way, for every every group, old young male female like this, this isn't a movie that's been swamped. Like the matrix has been swamped by younger male people. No, no. Shorter is universal. And lesbian bear a member it's a three hour brutal racist prison drama. It's not like written on it.

Alex Ferrari 38:37
And it's called the worst idol ever. The Shawshank Redemption.

Steven Follows 38:42
I don't understand two of those three words. Yeah, exactly.

Alex Ferrari 38:45
It's right thought I get but the rest of them like really? No, it's It's fascinating. And I don't want to go on a tangent on Shawshank because I could talk for hours about Shashank but that movie is such an anomaly. And I always I've analyzed that movie a million times of why why it is so why it's so loved and beloved. I always tell people if you don't like Shawshank you're dead inside I'm sorry. I kind of talked to you. You something went wrong along the way you you're dead inside I'm sorry.

Steven Follows 39:17
But when I give I give a talk from time to time and when I use Shawshank as an example. I do say how many of you have seen it? And there's always like no that sometimes they'll be one person if there's a room of like 50 people and everyone else turns them and the main question is like how how have you not seen this movie? Like this is an essentially and what's so funny is that the next movie they made The Green Mile I have a three hour brutal racist prison I love them Stephen King I love it. But anyways, I'm not this is not a tangent but my theory on Shawshank is that that movie is essentially it's got a fun plot in the sense that it's got

Alex Ferrari 39:52
Fun and fun fun.

Steven Follows 39:54
No, sorry. No, no, but what I'm saying is that the twist you know, are we we already We weren't rooting for him. But the main reason that's that's a distraction. I don't think that's the reason it's a successful film. I think that's fun. But I think that's what it gives people in their front of their mind to be distracted. The reason it's so successful is for three hours, it asks one basic question, which is, can these two be friends, and then the most unfriendly people in the world? You know, one is a wrongly convicted quiet accountant, who's in an incredibly brutal place, the other guy is in prison, he's black in a place that's in a time that's incredibly racist. It's unfair. And throughout the whole movie, you're saying, Are they friends? Are they friends? Are they friends? And the final? Final, our focus shot says, yes, they are. And then your heart explodes, because you're like, Oh, my God, they were friends. And that's what that movie does. It asks one question repeatedly, for three hours, and then gives you a satisfying answer.

Alex Ferrari 40:48
Now, I'm going to give you my theory, because now we're gonna, we're gonna do I'm sorry, audience, this is going to happen. So just settle in for a second because we're gonna we're gonna do this. I agree with that. I think that is one of the multi layers of this film. I always found it to be and I'm sorry, spoiler alert for anyone who's not seeing Shawshank Redemption, I'm going to talk a little bit about the ending. So please, fast forward. But I only saw it as an as a allegory of our existence. And I'm going to go deep here, as our existence as human beings, because I feel that many of us feel like any refrain, that life has put us in boxes that we do not belong in, that we've been wrongly accused of, whether that be our life circumstances, our family life, our jobs, whatever it is, and then that that beating that he gets throughout the movie, and you know, getting the ratings and all the other things that happened to him is life doing that to us on a daily, weekly, monthly yearly basis, again, and again and again. And it is a life sentence, just like him, it's a life sentence. So when he figures out a way to over not overpower but with his mind, break free, and that he has to go through, you know, three football fields worth of crap to get out of that. And when he's so finally exposed, it's almost like he's being birthed, again, at the end, rips off his clothes and, and that he has been able to outsmart the thing that put him there. It is the ultimate cathartic feeling for us, like, Oh, my God, what if I could do that to my boss? What if I could do that to a family member, that that's been pounding me all these years, emotionally, verbally, or whatever, or you know, whatever situation in life has been doing that to you. And that is why I feel that it is it cuts through every genre, age, male, female, it doesn't matter. I remember watching that movie, oh, it was in 94, it was released. And that year, I'll never forget it. I was I was fresh out of high school. And my high school, you know, friends at the time, who, you know, we all thought John Claude Van Damme was the greatest actor of all time. We all said holy cow is that a great movie, it cut through even maturity level. And only after you get older, you realize a lot of other levels of it. But even at that basic level it cut through. That's my interpretation

Steven Follows 43:18
That is that I love that that is such a good point. And you know, the interesting thing about read is that the Morgan Freeman character is that I can understand everybody identifying with and you've to frame but nobody is really identifying with read. And I read something a while ago that was talking about the TV show entourage. And it said, the reason that TV entourage works is not because men have a fantasy about being Vince, then it's not that they want to fuck movie stars, and they want to be rich, is that they want to be best friends with Vince. So they get to movie stars. Like they don't want the responsibility or the pressure or the expectation of being Vince, they want to be turtle. They want to be he you know, he wanted? Yeah, exactly. That's what men want. They want that kind of access, access, but without the responsibility. And so everybody wants to have a friend like read, but nobody actually wants to be read. And because here's a guy that can get you everything, but you can still be quiet. Andy, you know what, I find that that's, I like your theory on that one. We um,

Alex Ferrari 44:13
I think I like your theory as well. I think the I think they're both valid, and they both work in the same way. It's just I think that that movie has so many layers and levels of things that are going on that it just it is it is as perfect of a film as I've ever seen on you.

Steven Follows 44:31
And it proves to me that you'd like I'm joking about being a brutal in a prison job. But it is. And it isn't like that that is that teaches you that there's no story that can't it's impossible for it to be something that can connect with people. And if you can have that movie that the static stream connecting with so many people in such an extreme way and I think is possible. It's not everything is possible with anything.

Alex Ferrari 44:50
No stories, good stories, it will cut through all of this if the story is exactly well executed and directed in the I mean, it's just amazing. But back to what was over. Sorry, guys. Sorry, we went on a short check.

Steven Follows 45:03
You can come back now we finished and

Alex Ferrari 45:06
We'll be right back after a word from our sponsor. And now back to the show.

Steven Follows 45:17
Yeah, no. So So anyway, so one of my first theories I had I really wanted to test when I when we started on this data was voiceover and and is it correlate with bad scripts? And and I can tell you now that the answer is it doesn't matter. It doesn't. If you have a huge amount, then obviously, it's a problem. But a huge amount of anything, you know, there's a, I can assure you that a huge amount of exclamation marks don't help, you know, huge amount of anything doesn't help. Fundamentally, it doesn't matter. And so I've updated my understanding of this. And I now think that I still believe that there is a loose correlation between voiceover and bad movies. But now I'm putting the blame on editors and producers who were doing hack jobs to, quote unquote, save a movie, or to make it shorter or to you know, whatever. You know, like Blade Runner,

Alex Ferrari 46:02
You were you were I was about to just cough up Blade Runner. I mean, yeah.

Steven Follows 46:07
And so that's my theory is now now is that actually writing? VoiceOver is fine. It's how you use it, it doesn't it's not a good thing. It's not a bad thing. It's a tool, you know, and you as an artist need to think with that and what you paint matters. But it's not a bad thing. It's not something to one of the things I hope I can do with this project is, if you are a writer who is currently being told to cut voiceover, you believe is important. And you're being told, because it's a fact that VoiceOver is bad. I can tell you for a fact, fact, it's not. It's what you do with it.

Alex Ferrari 46:37
Yeah, I know, Robert McKee yells at people for using VoiceOver. But like everything, it's a tool. It can be used right or not?

Steven Follows 46:45
Well, so he might not be, he might not be wrong as well. But it's correlated with bad movies. But that's different to bad screenplays, you know, really important that we understand that because movies go through so many processes with so many people between the screenplay, and the beat and the big screen. And that's why this data stuff is so interesting. We need to chop up all of these different stages down and analyze them separately, so that we're not confusing one thing and doing something else, you know, we're not just thinking I saw a bad movie with VoiceOver therefore, I'll never write it. No, no, don't do what that movie did that made it bad. It's not, you know, you're focusing on the wrong thing.

Alex Ferrari 47:17
Now, I love the next part I want to talk about and for everyone listening in a car with a child, this is the part where you might want to skip or pause and listen to it privately. We're going to talk about swearing in scripts, and that I just love that there was somebody who counted how many shits there were in 12,000. Scripts? How many folks that were in 12,000 scripts and other words, and I just love that you are that person? Steven? I do.

Steven Follows 47:47
What can I just say for the record? I did not read every script. Of course, there's one. No, no,

Alex Ferrari 47:51
Obviously now you would still be doing it. But that there was a that was a that was one of the data points that we needed to discover. That was it,

Steven Follows 48:00
I can tell you that I built the machine to, you know, a little algorithm to discuss these, which means I'm one of the few people who can say I have built a buck machine.

Alex Ferrari 48:09
You know, but like so the word that's most uses shit starts swear word, and followed quickly by fuck. And then the C word I never liked saying the C word. But the C word drops down to like, five, less than 10% of all scripts had this word because it's a harsh word. It's harsher than shitter. Fuck, but it's fascinating. Like, and then also in genre, which John uses the most swear words, Comedy, Action and horror.

Steven Follows 48:43
And the thing is, I think they're all doing different things in the sense that action, it's about exclamations of like, surprise, I think horror, it's about you know, pain and frustration whereas comedy, it's, it's, they're using it in a different way. And in another part of the report, we found that there's a strong correlation between sexual words words to do with sex that are in comedy. So if you look at most words to do with where it's, you know, genitalia or or different sex or whatever sexual acts, they're much more likely to be found in comedy. So people because they don't tend to thrillers don't tend to be fundamentally about sex, whereas comedies can be or are more likely to be. So it's interesting. They've all got different reasons for being, you know, on that top part of the script, top part of the chart

Alex Ferrari 49:26
That I'm looking at the report right now, Steven, and I started giggling because there's a graph and graphic with like, fuck, 63.3% Fuck can't 9% It's like, it's like throwing and I'm like, oh my god, this is brilliant.

Steven Follows 49:45
You know what, guys? The Venn diagram with three people showing the overlap of stuff that this caused me this graph caused me the biggest problem of all of the reports. And as I said before, it's a lot of fun This song was a problem because every time I sent notes to my graphic designer, it went to his spam folder. Because all the words in the email were the three worst words in the English language. And so this was a problem for moderation more than anything else. And I was trying to, you know, point out then this is academic. It's not like we're children. But, um, but what was interesting is that there is a correlation. Earlier in the report, we looked at the correlation between the amount of swearing and the scores it got. And we found that actually, across all the films, as they got scarier, they got higher, higher and higher scores not insignificantly, apart from the most, the top 20% of you know, in the 20%, who got the most weariness, and they're the ones that didn't perform that well. But the ones that had some swearing, or what we call a lot of swearing, so this is sort of third of fourth, fifth of the rural districts, they actually scored the highest. And when we try to look into why this was obviously you should know family, but across all the scripts, it was like this. And when we also drill down to try and work out why we discovered a pattern where the swearing of the script was, the higher the score was for voice, which is one of the things that we can measure like we were talking about before with catharsis and things like that. So what's happening is that a lot of times script readers are correlating the use of swearing with how good the writers voices, or, you know, good writers swear a lot, we can't, we don't know the difference between the two, they both show up the same. But this is a really good example of this is true. And this is very useful, but at the same time, just putting more swear words in there is misreading the results. It just says that kinds of people who have the strong, strongest writing voice are more likely to wear than the ones that don't.

Alex Ferrari 51:49
Well, I mean, it is actually quite fascinating. But again, you know, given Tarantino or Shane Black, the power of cursing, they use it as an art form. It's it's a paintbrush for them. They don't lean on it as a crutch. Where a lot of screenwriters I find in scripts that I've read, lean on it as a crutch as like, I have nothing cool to say here. So I'm just gonna say the F word. You know, as opposed to something that really makes sense. You know, like, it's like when Tarantino curses, it's an art form?

Steven Follows 52:22
Yeah, well, yeah, you can say that he's writing voice is coming out of that. You're absolutely right. And so yeah, kind of kind of interesting. I'm not sure this is there's a few things in here where I don't really want people to take this as literal advice to do tomorrow. It's more as a route to understand how things work. But yeah, if suddenly the no spec script world becomes a lot scarier, then I,

Alex Ferrari 52:43
It's your fault. It's your fault. It's your fault. And then age, age of characters, I found. Not surprising, but interesting, where basically 30s is the sweet spot. That's that, well, that's

Steven Follows 52:57
Your right, that's the most common and so that we don't have individual data on the actual screenwriters. So I can't tell you like whether people who are over 60 write characters that are over 60, I'd love to, but I think that's a bit like we'd have that, you know, people to give us that there. And it's just a bit too much private data. But what we do know is across all our writers, the average age is about 3132. And so Unsurprisingly, the most common age for characters is in their 30s. But what you find is if you look at the age of the characters, and then you look at how often they speak, you find that as characters get older, they speak less, which is just typical of like someone in their early 30s, or late 30s. so late 20s, thinking, the older they get, yeah, the less relevant they are, the less, you know, they drive the story, which I thought was kind of fun. And also the idea that, you know, there are things in here that I think one of the things a good writer will always be thinking about, is how will show on screen? How will people see this? So for example, the most common final digit and an age was characters was zero. So the characters were 2030 4050 That makes sense, right? But then the next most common was 525 3540. But after that, it was eight. So 2838, you know, 48. And I think that's because the writers think that when you write somebody 28 You're saying something about their character. You know, they are older, but maybe they've got regrets. They've got time to try and achieve things, you know, people midlife crisis, you know, maybe hits people around 38, or whatever. And so there's information that the writers are trying to convey that is probably never going to be shown on screen. You know, if the characters are having a midlife crisis, then you have to show them saying it, living it driving a new car, whatever it is, but just saying their age won't do it. So it's kind of interesting about is that one of those things as a writer is, are you conveying that information in a way that will make it through to the big screen and into the minds of your audience?

Alex Ferrari 54:50
Well, I mean, we've we've talked a lot about this report, and believe it or not, everyone, there is a lot more information in this report than what we've discussed that we haven't given away all the goodies and And are you giving this away? Are you doing it pay as you can what is going on with this?

Steven Follows 55:04
No, we're giving it away, actually. And the last report, I did a horror report, I did it as a pay what you want, because it costs it took a lot of time to put together the horror report. And I thought, if I can make a sustaining business out of people paying for these reports that I can then put the money into the next report, that would be great. And so it was a minimum of $1. And anything else more you wanted. This time around, we're doing it entirely for free, because we figured that what we really want to do here Screencraft and I got together to help screenwriters, you know, they've given up loads of that. And they've given me access in various ways to their data. But it's fundamentally something that we really want are doing not as a commercial thing, and they're not paying me, you know, what it is, it's just to help people, it might make a little harder for the people who really could get some. So it's gonna be a free download, but time you listen, really free, if you go to Steven follows.com as STP HMF ll ows, you'll be able to find it and download the whole thing as a PDF for free. And I do want to say a big thank you to the people who bought the horrible past, whether you paid $1, whether you pay $20, whether you paid $50, thank you, because some of the things we had to do for this report, we had to pay for services or like the graphic designer or the little costs, but they their costs. And the money that people paid donating for the whole report went into this one. So the fact that is free is thanks to the people who chose if anything last time, but also especially the people who chose to give more than the minimum and love that, you know, the community can give what they can everyone gives what they want to hear from what they think it will help them. And yet, together, we can all move ourselves forward, then that's a that's a happy outcome.

Alex Ferrari 56:46
And we are going to put links to to the report and to all of Stephens insane work in the show notes as well. And then we are also going to talk I might have you back for the horror report, honestly. Yeah, I might have you back for the horror report. Because the horror report, let's just just tease everybody listening. It went through how many films, all of them. So basically, every horror film ever created. You actually

Steven Follows 57:19
I think he's ever released ever released in US cinemas ever so I think it's top 10,000 films. So it's not like if you made a video with your mates or known sorry, it's ones that made it to some form of distribution. At some point throughout the last 100 years, yeah, I just I spent a year and a half looking at them in every possible way. And it was really enjoyable. You know, funnily enough, I'm not actually much of a horror fan. And I don't really watch horror films. It's not what I want as a fan. But as a, as someone who wants to understand the industry, it was really exciting, because, as I said, there's the lowest correlation between the quality of the film and the success, which immediately suggests the question, well, what does matter, and also because it's the most accessible genre for low budget filmmakers, and it can, in theory, you could be the next paranormal activity or next Blair Witch, whereas you're not going to be the next Jurassic Park. So it's an accessible genre that's fun to make, that actually has, you can affect it more than just get good. And so for me, that was like, okay, I can do something here. I can help people who want to make horror films, by helping them show what kind of things but you're right, it's like 200 pages, it took a year and a half. It's gonna It's a whole new podcast, I think

Alex Ferrari 58:30
We are going to, I'm going to have you back seat. And we're going to talk about the whole report, because I think that's going to be extremely beneficial to, to the tribe. And I just want to read it to because it's, it sounds fascinating, you know, so, Steven, I want to ask you a few questions. I asked all of my guests. What advice would you give a screenwriter wanting to break into the business today or a filmmaker?

Steven Follows 58:52
I'd say it's these two things, which sound like they're the opposite, but they're not one is is about you, which is, you know, just get good, you know, and they get good, really, really slowly. And it's really, really hard. You just keep working at it. And you keep writing and writing and everyone says Write, write, write. And actually that is the right thing to do. You just keep producing the work. And so that's a sort of inward note. But then the second thing is you got to get out there and you've got to meet people, not because you're going to meet the next Harvey ones in or studio boss in a lift, God that has a completely different meaning nowadays, it does. It does.

Alex Ferrari 59:26
Yes, yes.

Steven Follows 59:29
You're not because you're going to meet the next studio boss in a left pitch them and then and then she's going to hire you. That might happen. But that's not the reason you go out and meet people is because you meet people who are in the same position as you and they're in the same pub journey. And, and, you know, everyone says networking, networking is through its people. It's people standing in the corner of a industry event, clinging on to their drink, hating it, standing there for somebody else. Hey, I'm Steven. I hate this. And so when I was going, Hey, I'm Alex. I hate this too. Oh, cool. You know, and then talk That's what networking is. And the more you can do that, the more you'll meet people who are in the same position as you, but they're a producer, or director or a writer, whatever you need. Someone who's been there before who can help you, or there's someone who can work for you or work, you know, you can bring them on your team. And you just you keep adding, you keep turning up. And you look at the people who are successful, they are very talented, but they've also turned up a huge amount. And the most of the people that come in at the same time as you the first year, you're in film, loads of people coming in the same year. Most of those people are lazy, most of them are flaky, most of them have got other things to do. And that's great, like good luck to them, that it's great that they're leaving the industry to do other things that make them happy. And if they haven't got the stamina for it, it's better they find out now. But the more years, you keep turning up the keep producing work, keep showing it to people keep talking to people, you just get good by turning up because people see you, they give you advice, you see patterns. And then very quickly, you realize that the person that you met at that party five years ago, they're now actually got a film that did well and they're looking for another script, and they know you. And suddenly it seems a bit easier. So after like 567 years, maybe 10 years, depending on where you are and what you're doing. Suddenly, things almost become easier, out of nowhere. But what's really happened is it took you 10 years without any feedback of access to build those roots. And the last thing I say is that when I was a kid, I am British and I grew up in Britain. And when I'm watching all of these comedies in the 90s, everybody seemed to be on this comedy TV shows. Everybody seemed to be in each other's shows. And I always used to think how do I break into that circle? How do I break in circle? And now as an adult, and as someone who understands the industry, I realized you don't break into their circle? You make your own circle? Yes. And do it when nobody else is anybody else. And everybody else is unemployed has never done anything isn't good. Yeah. And you connect your work together. And then suddenly, one day you wake up and you realize you're in a circle. And you're in your own club, and no one can break in really like it's not that you're pushing them away. It's just that, given the first choice, why would you not work with these people that you've worked with? For 10 years, who also were there for you when there was no money and no fame and they still showed up course you're going to hire them first, which means there's no space for anyone to break in. But there should be people making their own circle in another room somewhere. And in the future, there'll be the people that were in the same position you are now. And I think that's really important to realize is that you all of the work is done before the light gets shine on you, you know get shone on you. And you have to work hard when no one's watching. Because eventually that does pay off. It just isn't sexy. It isn't fun. It isn't easy. It doesn't pay. And it's it's not the sexy kind of montage you see in a movie of people just writing and then being angry and then suddenly being happy. And then they've got it and then it's the next morning. It's far less sexy than that.

Alex Ferrari 1:02:38
That's some great, great advice. And I've I've answered I've asked that question hundreds of times on the show. That was that's the first time that's ever been answered that way. So it's a really great piece of advice. Oh, thank you. Now can you tell me what book had the biggest impact on your life or career?

Steven Follows 1:02:57
Interesting, I read a lot. And I read a lot of nonfiction to try and understand different people's worlds. And I'd say I it's hard to say the one but I'd say one that is incredibly powerful that really ticked a lot of boxes was creativity, Inc.

Alex Ferrari 1:03:10
Oh, what a great book. Oh, that's a great book.

Steven Follows 1:03:13
And it's so nice to have an entertaining story with a with a person's life story. But also it's a business book. And it's a book about how to be a creative, a creative person. Yes. But the other thing, just I'm going to cheat and give you a second book. It's entirely different. There's a book called The Golden theme. And it's a short book, and it's by a story theorists called Brian McDonald. And he also wrote invisible ink and a few others. He is a genius and is totally, I wouldn't say underappreciated, because lots of people know how good he is. But he's, I don't understand why he's not, you know, bigger than the key or, you know, talking more, I just, his stuff is amazing. And the golden theme is a fairly short little book. It's not sort of whole book, like invisible ink is a whole book about screenwriting. The Golden theme is about one idea that he's seen throughout many different the history of stories and art and things like that, that there's one theme that seems to be seems to come up a lot in the work that's really successful. And it's this idea that we're all the same. And he talks about it and he doesn't, he doesn't even make it a loan book. He doesn't need to he makes it a get some examples, talks about it. And says that when that comes up, it tends to be really powerful. And when soon as you read this, you're like, Yeah, I can see it. And you and you walk around the world going, Oh, my God is there. Oh, my God. And then you realize you can put it into your work. And so yeah, anything written by Brian McDonald, but specifically Gordon theme, it was out of print for a while, but I think it's come back into print. And if anyone is brilliant, well then get it. Read it. It's it'll take you an hour to read it. And it will transform your writing I think.

Alex Ferrari 1:04:43
Yeah, it's actually I'm on Amazon right now as we speak. So it's been it's been put in my cart sir. Now what is the lesson that took you the longest to learn whether in the film business or in life?

Steven Follows 1:04:56
Well, obviously the only honest answer is I don't know. Yeah, but I won't give you that one. I think I think I can Okay, so I wouldn't say it took me a long time to get to the same answer. Everyone always told me. So I used to read lots of books about internet startups and things like that, because I was because I always thought there's a strong correlation between running a production company or being an independent producer or direct director and having a startup, it's a very similar model, it's just you don't have the bit where you turn it into a multi trillion pound enterprise, and you get to be floated on the stock market. But the first few bits are very similar. And they all say things like, he talked to a serial investors in Silicon Valley. And they always say, We're investing in the people, not the product. And when there's one investor, when one Creator, we're less keen to invest, but when there's a team of two or three people, then it really matters. You know, that's, you know, a team of two or three great people who work together, that that's the most investable combination. And so you hear that, but you think, Well, yeah, but how can I find my kind of partnerships or whatever. And so you kind of forget it. And but then, when I look back on the things that have really mattered, it is partnerships. And I've ended up working with lots of different people and some people I've worked with once, and that's been fine. Other times, I've wanted to work people again, and again, and for a small number of people who I have ongoing work with, whether it's in a limited company, like an actual commercial business, or whether it's someone I just I've got a shared lexicon with. And looking at the people that really I work with and have ongoing relationships with, I can see how they bring the best out in me, I bring the best out in them, they catch the worst of me, and I catch the worst of them. And, and as we will Alex and I were talking about beforehand, it's about Sometimes there are things that I hate that I think it's just the worst thing in the world. And for someone else, it's the best thing they could possibly do. And I you know, you and I are talking about you loving, promotion and marketing and me, I can't stand it can't do it. And yet with the film data, stuff, this stuff is not a sweat. For me, it's hard work, but it's not impossible. Whereas for other people, it can be hard to imagine what it is. And if you find someone who you truly understand you share a worldview, you share a view of how the world should be, but your interests and desires are fundamentally opposed. That's a really good model. So I'd say don't try and find people who want to do what you're doing. Find people who believe what you believe. And then do a little project with them. And if that works, do another one, do another one. And you don't have to, you know, meet somebody and propose to them, you can just keep working with them. And then you'll find the people who keep turning up. And that is the most wonderful supportive thing where you have someone who gets you to work with you catch the worst of you, like unhinged, you know, unclip you, so you can run to the best of you. And it's just immense fun. So, yeah, be open to that and try and find those people as hard as that might sound.

Alex Ferrari 1:07:43
And what are three of your favorite films of all time?

Steven Follows 1:07:47
Oh, Jesus, I think Shawshank Redemption we talked about that is, you know, I wish I wish I had the balls to say, you know, Jurassic Park, for the Fallen kingdom and the Fallen kingdom to whatever it was called. I don't. And I think inside out is an amazing law about just what it is to be human. And I still I've watched that movie so many times, I still don't know how they did it. And I just in a story basis, I just don't understand what that is. And I also think I think, what was that movie called? I can't remember the name now. I think it won the Oscar. And it's about kind of a complete mind. Like, it's an Australian film about the secret police in the 80s. And hold on my Western political lives of others. That's why I got married to my wife.

Alex Ferrari 1:08:38
Same here. Same.

Steven Follows 1:08:42
Remember what I said about find a partner who understands the shares your worldview, but has different skills? Yes, he can remember like, you know, names and stuff, and the lives of others. Like, again, another movie where you watch it, and you're just like, how, what, what, that's amazing. How did you do? How did you do that? And yet, it's so clear, like it's just great work on every level. Yeah, the movies that seemed to really move me.

Alex Ferrari 1:09:04
And where can people find you and your amazing work, sir.

Steven Follows 1:09:09
So all my works at stephenfollows.com. Occasionally I do I don't tend to do work published and other places just time more than the house. But some of the work I've done with Bruce Nash, who runs the numbers is on the AFM website. I think there's copies of it on my site as well. And I would actually, I'm gonna use this opportunity if you've spent the last hour hour and a half, maybe 10 minutes ago, Alex had been editing and listening to me and to Alex and you're already on listen to his podcast. I know you've got one or two amazing questions for me to research. I know that there's some stuff I like. Is that always the case? When does that work? Was this I don't care how stupid it sounds how everyone tells you no one knows. Maybe maybe this is a stupid question. Maybe no one can know but I I would love to have any question you can send me to research because the best stuff I've ever looked at is when people have said you know what? I probably not going to do this or, you know, everyone always says this, And it suggests something I never thought of, I go and look at it and come back. And it's really pleasing because I can actually help. And I, you know, this is me, I'm not going to, I'm not going to reply with one idiot question go away, you know, even the, the questions which sound the most kind of strange or straightforward, are speaking to a wider truth. So, go to my site, go on the contact page, oh, Steven follows.com, go to contact page, semi fill in the form, it comes straight to me goes to my inbox. I will happily respond to everything as if I have the answer. I sent you the link. If I think it's impossible, I'll say so. But probably I'll say that's a great question. I'll put it on my list. And then one day, when I have the data or the time I'll look at it and become an article, not only will you get closure, but also, so many other people have shared a guarantee you share your question. And it'd be really nice to be able to help. So if you guys can help me go on my site, send me questions, ideas, things I should research in the film industry. And I'd really appreciate that.

Alex Ferrari 1:10:57
Oh, well, people were what you wish for, sir. That's all I'm gonna say at that for that right now. Be careful what you wish for you might get anyone.

Steven Follows 1:11:05
But the message that I said, Alex, send me. Oh, I'm from I'm part of the tribe.

Alex Ferrari 1:11:10
I'm part of ifH tribe. Yeah, just put that I've done this before. And I've warned people not to do something stuff like this. Because they get inundated with emails and conference. So I'm curious to see what will happen. But, of course, thank you so much for being so generous, not only with your time today, but your constant work and helping filmmakers and screenwriters. And people in the business try to succeed. So I truly from the bottom of my heart, I truly appreciate all the hard work you do. And you do an immense amount of hard work, you know, almost selfless in many ways to to help the industry. So thank you again, for that and for being on the show, sir.

Steven Follows 1:11:49
Oh, thank you so much. Thank you for your time, and I'm not gonna I'm too British to start talking about all the great work you do, but likewise to you. But also thanks for having the time to chat about these things. This is how we get the word out there. This is how we realize we are all the same. And we all have the same challenges. So if I can be part of this, I feel honored. So thanks again.

Alex Ferrari 1:12:08
I want to thank Stephen for coming on the show and really dropping some major knowledge bombs on the tribe today. Thank you so much, Steven. If you want to get links to this insane report, please head over to the show notes at indiefilmhustle.com/bps047. And you'll get links to anything else we discussed in this episode, also including his new course on crowdfunding for filmmakers. If you have a project and you need some advice on how to crowdfund properly, his course is pretty insane as well. So definitely check that out. And if you have not already, please head over to screenwriting podcast.com And leave a good review for the show. It truly truly helps us out a lot. And we want to get ranked as high as we can on iTunes. So it really really does help. Thank you so much, guys. I really hope you enjoyed this crossover episode. As always, keep on writing no matter what. I'll talk to you soon.


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